It's official, the Indian Air Force will withdraw from service its squadrons which were still using the Mig27 attack aircraft acquired in the 80s. This withdrawal, although planned and expected to be effective by 2024, was anticipated following two accidents which resulted in the destruction of two aircraft in February and March 2019, the pilots having managed to eject. With the accelerated withdrawal of the Jaguars announced a few weeks ago, the IAF sees the two aircraft making up its attack fleet, which today represents 150 aircraft, being promised rapid withdrawal, with no replacement announced for the time being.
In the 80s, India acquired 165 Mig27 attack aircraft from the Soviet Union. This variable geometry device was derived from the Mig23 fighter, from which the High Lark interception radar had been removed in favor of a bombing computer. The aircraft was specialized in bombing missions, like the Franco-British Jaguar of the time. It also carries a downward-facing IRST, unlike the traditional Mig27M export version. Like the Jaguars, the Indian MIG27ML Bahadur were modernized in the 2000s to implement precision weapons and guided missiles. But the single-engine configuration of the aircraft led to numerous accidents, with more than 12 aircraft having been lost in the 2000-2010 decade alone.
With this withdrawal, the IAF[efn_note]Indian Air Force[/efn_note] sees its attack component largely undermined in the short term, and reduced to nothing within a few years. It is partly offset by the multi-role capabilities of the approximately 270 Su30MKIs in service, but these aircraft remain mainly specialized in air superiority missions. The MMRCA 2 contract, which aims to replace the 110 Mig21s still in service, will also make it possible to implement a new multi-purpose aircraft, but the entry into service of the first aircraft will not take place before 2026 or 2027, in the best case scenario. while Mig21s must be removed from service by 2024. The emergency order of some Su-30MKI and Mig29 near Russia will not change the capability deficit that is looming for the IAF.
Whatever the assumptions made today, the IAF will therefore be missing between 120 and 180 aircraft with significant air strike capabilities between 2025 and 2035. And the Rafale appears today as the best candidate to respond to this deficit, for several reasons:
- le Rafale will already be in service in the IAF, and will already carry out nuclear strike missions linked to deterrence. It therefore has the skills to operate the aircraft
- the initial contract concerning the order of 36 Rafale was accompanied by a maintenance infrastructure that could accommodate up to 150 devices
- this same first contract made it possible to integrate several conventional Air-Ground munitions in service with the IAF, including the Brahmos supersonic cruise missile.
- le Rafale is today the only device on the market, with the Su34, to have been designed specifically for attack and penetration missions at low altitude, the only effective solution to counter modern access denial systems used in particular by China .
- Even in air strike configuration, the Rafale can provide a significant boost in power in terms of air superiority, due to its real multi-mission versatility.
- Finally, by its twin-engine configuration and its performances (speed, carrying capacity, range of action, very low altitude high speed penetration etc.), the Rafale is much more reliable and efficient in these missions than the local Tejas, especially to oppose an adversary like China, in theaters like the Himalayan range.
We therefore understand the origin persistent rumors concerning a possible additional order of devices from India, which could be announced on the occasion of President Macron's visit to New Delhi at the end of January for the Indian National Day. The French industrialists of the consortium Rafale have, moreover, taken the time to design an efficient and safe “Made in India” offer, making it possible to offer the same level of contractual guarantees as for aircraft assembled in Mérignac. In addition, Beijing's announcement of the launch of mass production of the J-20 will put additional pressure on New Delhi and the IAF, pushing towards strong and rapid decisions.
