While the American Congress has just allocated a budgetary extension to the US Air Force of $1 billion to acquire the 10 F35As which were to be delivered to the Turkish air forces in 2020, the Turkish Minister of Foreign Affairs, Mevlut Cavusoglu, clarified that his country was ready to close the two NATO air bases present on its soil, if Turkey were to be subject to American sanctions. Tensions between the United States, Europeans and Turks are now multi-faceted, and the declarations continue to follow one another in a huge game of diplomatic lying poker.
Washington's position towards Ankara today is far from clear, or even coherent. On the one hand, Turkey was excluded from the F35 program in retaliation for the acquisition of S400 long-range anti-aircraft missile batteries from Russia, and could be subject to economic sanctions pursuant to CAATSA legislation. On the other hand, President Trump seems to have a much less clear-cut position than the American Congress, or its European allies, about the operation carried out a month ago in northern Syria against the Kurdish allies of the YPG. In fact, during the last NATO summit, the American president became the spokesperson for a less radical line towards Turkey, even though President Erdogan threatened to block the alliance's mechanisms concerning reassurance measures in Western Europe. 'East and in the Baltic States. At the same time, Ankara's communication, supported by that of Moscow, continued to distill one thing and its opposite, moving from negotiations to integrate the S400 into NATO's anti-aircraft defense, to the possibility of turn to Moscow to acquire combat aircraft and additional defense systems.
This latest “threat” from the Turkish authorities, regarding the Incirlik and Kurecik bases, however, raises the level of tension to a higher level. Indeed, the Incirlik base is one of the 5 NATO bases hosting the B61 nuclear bombs allocated by the United States to certain NATO countries with the principle of the double key, the United States in holding one, the host country which also provides the vector (the fighter plane carrying the bomb), having another, both being necessary to arm the weapon. What's more, Incirlik is said to be the NATO base with the most nuclear bombs. If certain reports indicate that these weapons have been moved to Bulgaria, the closure of these bases would undoubtedly lead to the redefinition of the organization of the South-Eastern flank of NATO, whether in the Black Sea or in the Eastern Mediterranean.
Not, moreover, that Aillace is devoid of options. It could thus move its forces to the Akrotiri air base on the island of Cyprus, which already accommodates Royal Air Force planes. Such a deployment would provide comparable access to Turkish bases vis-à-vis the Middle Eastern theater. As far as the Aegean and Black Seas are concerned, it could be deployed on Greek, Bulgarian or Romanian air bases. On the other hand, If Turkey were to leave NATO, the “Southern” flank of the alliance would be very weakened, and access to the Black Sea would be very problematic. It would therefore be necessary to strengthen the neighboring countries, Greece, Bulgaria and Romania, in the same way as the strengthening of the Baltic States today, so as to neutralize a possible shift in Ankara's alliance.
The fact remains that, for the moment, President Trump's indecision on the subject of Ankara is certainly not helping to calm minds, nor to find a way out from above, if that is possible. This fundamental silence is the same as that which followed the first delivery of S400 missiles to the Turkish forces. But we must recognize that today, any announcement in the form of a threat or ultimatum would, without the slightest doubt, have any effect, as the American president used it several times without following up. Like Kim Jong Un, the North Korean leader, Xi Jinping, the Chinese president, or Vladimir Putin, RT Erdogan understood that the American president threatened a lot, but acted much less. Therefore, it would be enough to remain firm in the face of threats, while by letting go of a few scraps of hope, to neutralize American action, and with it, that of the entire West. A situation which is reminiscent of that which preceded the Second World War, when neither France, nor Great Britain, nor the United States, took firm decisions to contain Germany, Italy or the Japan.