Thursday, November 30, 2023

Facing Europeans, the Russian Army in 2030 will be much more powerful than today

The current Russo-Ukrainian crisis, whatever its conclusion, will have allowed Moscow to make an extraordinary demonstration of force in Europe, to the point that no European country, even those closest to Kiev, is considering becoming involved militarily. alongside the Ukrainian armies in the event of conflict. And it is clear that these Russian armies managed to mobilize, move and assemble around a hundred combined arms tactical battalions, the Russian equivalent of the French Inter-Arms Tactical Group, or 65% of its land operational force, and this between the of November and the beginning of February. For comparison, the French Army today estimates that it is capable of mobilizing a combat division, i.e. 3 brigades and a dozen GTIAs, within 6 months, without taking into account the movement of units. towards their areas of engagement, even though they are, in this area, undoubtedly the most operational forces of the European armies.

In fact, Moscow has incontestably created an extremely favorable balance of power in Europe, without even having to bring in its nuclear power, putting Europeans under very significant pressure. Unfortunately for them, this state of affairs will not evolve favorably in the years to come, Moscow having several areas of progression planned to very significantly increase the power of its armed forces by 2030, and thus widen the balance of power even further. in its favor in Europe. More precisely, there are 4 areas of progression: the technological evolution of the armies, the effects of professionalization, the National Guard and, finally, the effects of global geopolitical redistribution.

Future technological developments within the Russian armies

The celebrations of the 70th anniversary of the end of the Great Patriotic War, on May 9, 2015, were an opportunity for the world to discover numerous new equipment expected to transform the Russian armies in the years to come, such as the battle tank of new generation T-14 Armata, the T-15 heavy infantry fighting vehicle, the medium tracked IFV/APC Kourganet 25, the IFV/APC 8x8 Boomerang, and the Koalitziya SV self-propelled gun. In the air sector, the Russian aeronautics industry was developing the Su-57 Felon but also the S-70 Okhotnik-B heavy combat drone, and was engaged in the development of a stealth strategic bomber and an interceptor. new generation. A new generation of surface ships, such as the Admiral Gorshkov frigates and project 20380/20385 corvettes, and submarines with the SSK Lada, SSN Yassen and SSBN Borei were also under construction, while the Super destroyers Gorshkov, the Leader nuclear cruisers and the new generation Laika SSNs marked the renewal of the Russian Navy. 7 years later, it is clear that many of these devices are still not in service, and that some of them are not expected, significantly, before 2025 or even 2030.

BMP Kurganets 25,002 MoD Defense Analyzes | Fighter aircraft | Belarus
The Kurganet 25 Infantry fighting vehicle is equipped with the Epokha turret to replace the BMP type IFVs currently in service

However, the Russian armies have experienced a phase of intense modernization since the start of reforms in 2008, following the Georgian War, favoring the acquisition of upgrades to existing equipment rather than accelerating the development of equipment. new generation. This is how they received in a little over ten years, more than 2,500 modernized T-72B3(M), T-80BVM and T-90M heavy tanks, as well as 400 Su-35, Su-34 combat aircraft. and Su-30SM, all presenting a much more interesting quality-price ratio for the modernization of the Russian armies at this time. Thus, a T-14 Armata would cost, according to statements from Russian industry, nearly $5 million per unit , the equivalent of 2 T-90Ms, and more than 3 T-72B3Ms. A Su-57, for its part, would cost 2.5 times more than a Su-30SM, even though it is already a perfectly capable aircraft. In fact, between 2008 and today, the Russian armies have favored the acquisition of modernized equipment in quantity over that of new generation equipment in reduced quantities, so as to achieve the objective of 70% modern equipment in 2021 covered by the Russian programming law, in just 10 years of investment.

From now on, the situation is completely different, and the end of the current GPV will mark a clear transition towards the entry into service of new generation equipment , certainly much more expensive, but with much longer planning to get there. endow now that the initial modernization has been achieved. In fact, by 2030, the Russian armies will have effectively begun the modernization of their units towards this new generation of equipment, such as the armored vehicles of the Armata, Kurganet and Boomerang families, the Su-57 combat aircraft, the S-70 drone. and perhaps the Su-75 checkmate light fighter, the Super Gorshkov destroyers as well as the S-350, S-500 and S-550 anti-aircraft and anti-missile systems alongside the S-400, Buk-M and Tor . Beyond these major programs, numerous complementary equipment will also enter service, such as the Grom airborne combat drone or the Tzirkon hypersonic anti-ship missile, allowing the Russian armies not only to catch up, but sometimes to technologically surpass their Western counterparts and European, while retaining a significant operational mass due to previous programs.

The effects of the professionalization of the armies

LOGO meta defense 70 Analyzes Defense | Fighter aircraft | Belarus

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Fabrice Wolf
Fabrice Wolf
A former French naval aeronautics pilot, Fabrice is the editor and main author of the site. His areas of expertise are military aeronautics, defense economics, air and submarine warfare, and Akita inu.

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