Why is Poland suffering from defense bulimia?

For several months now, not a week has gone by without the Polish authorities announcing new arms contracts or new defense investments. Against the backdrop of the war in Ukraine, over which Warsaw showed unparalleled support for Kyiv, and growing and repeated threats from Russian spokespersons against it and its neighbours, the authorities of the country undertook an effort without equal in Europe in order to transform the Polish armies, and to equip them with capacities which would make it, without the slightest doubt, the most powerful ground mechanized force in Europe. After having announced the order of F-35A stealth fighters and Patriot anti-aircraft systems in 2019, Warsaw set out to acquire 250 M1A2 Abrams main battle tanks, as well as Javelin missiles from the United States.

Once the Russian offensive in Ukraine began, however, the pace of announcements increased dramatically, whether it was a change in format for go from 4 to 6 divisions, an increase in the defense effort to exceed 3% of GDP against 2,12 today, as well as new equipment contracts as numerous as they are voluminous, such as theBritish Type 31 frigates, K2 black tanks Panther and South Korean K9 self-propelled guns, or the American HIMARS rocket launchers. And obviously, the list is not closed, since the Polish Defense Minister, Mariusz Blaszczak, confirmed Warsaw's intention to order no less than 96 American AH-64E Guardian combat helicopters, much to the chagrin of the Italian Leonardo who made enormous efforts to try to place his new AW249 dans le pays.

If all of these announcements are effectively implemented, the Polish armies will have, in 2030, no less than 1500 modern K2 Black battle tanks. Panther, Abrams M1A2 and Leopard 2, more than 800 Krabs and K9 Thunder self-propelled guns, 500 Himars and K239 rocket launchers, or even more than 150 F35, F16 and FA-50 combat aircraft, while the equivalent of its land operational force will reach 90.000 men. There is little doubt that such military power, combining advanced equipment with more than significant mass, would be likely to deter any Russian military adventurism against Poland or its neighbors, in particular against the Baltic countries. However, it is clear that the effort announced by Warsaw will be particularly difficult to support for this country whose GDP remains 3 times lower than that of France, for example, and which no longer displays the same very economic and social prospects. promises that were his just a few months ago. Today, the acquisition announcements announced by Warsaw exceed a cumulative investment amount of €50 billion, or 8% of the country's GDP, and the defense effort announced at more than 3% of GDP will significantly increase the public spending which already represents nearly 45% of the State's GDP. For comparison, the €100 billion investment announced by Berlin only represents 3% of German GDP.

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