How many French air forces will field Rafale in 2030?

At the start of the week, the Ministry of the Armed Forces announced that a new order for 42 combat aircraft Rafale will be notified for the 2023 budget year. This was expected, since it is in alignment with the 2019-2025 Military Programming Law, and in accordance with the objectives of the 2017 Strategic Review. However, due to the postponement of deliveries to from 2016 to free up industrial capacities for export, but also to free up investment credits necessary elsewhere for other programs, as well as the sale of 12 Rafale used to Greece in 2020, then 12 aircraft to Croatia in 2021, all taken from the fleet of the Air Force of Space, a certain vagueness has crept into the reality of deliveries to to come, as well as the fleet that the French air forces will actually have at their disposal in application of these orders.

The Air Force, Air and Space fleet today consists of 132 aircraft ordered, of which 106 have been delivered, one aircraft was lost, and 24 aircraft were taken for export. used to Greece and Croatia, i.e. 81 devices online. For Naval Aeronautics, 47 of the 48 Rafale M ordered have already been delivered, but 4 devices have been lost, i.e. 43 devices in stock. From 2023, deliveries of the last 27 aircraft already ordered for Tranche IV will begin, of which 26 aircraft will be delivered to the Air Force and one aircraft for DGA tests, at a rate of 10 aircraft per year. In January 2021, the Ministry of the Armed Forces formalized an additional order for 12 aircraft which will be delivered jointly with those of tranche IV between 2023 and 2026, in order to compensate for the 12 Rafale taken from the Air and Space Force fleet for Greece.

The order of 42 aircraft announced at the start of the week corresponds to Tranche V, and will probably be delivered directly to the F4 standard, while the 39 aircraft to be delivered between 2023 and 2026 will be delivered to the F3R standard. According to the LPM 2019-2025 and the 2017 Strategic Review, this tranche was initially to concern 30 aircraft intended for the Air and Space Force in order to compensate for the withdrawal of the Mirage 2000 C and -5. By increasing the order to 42 devices, the Hotel de Brienne therefore formalizes the 1 for 1 compensation of Rafale taken for the Croatian contract. These will be delivered between 2027 and 2030, so that between 2023 and 2030 the Air Force will receive on average 10 Rafale new each year, and will therefore have, by 2030, 161 Rafale, which will operate alongside the 55 modernized Mirage 2000Ds, i.e. a fleet of 216 combat aircraft, therefore coming close to the request of the Chief of Staff of the Air and Space Force, General Stephane Mille, who declared that a fighter fleet of 225 aircraft was now essential to meet the challenges. Recall that initially, the 2013 White Paper and the 2017 Strategic Review targeted a force of 185 combat aircraft for the AAE. In total therefore, barring an unforeseen event, the French air forces will field in 2030, 260 combat aircraft including 205 aircraft Rafale, making it in the state of confirmed planning, the most imposing air force in Europe.

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