For the head of US deterrence, a US-China conflict seems inevitable

For the commander of the American Strategic Command, a United States-China conflict is now probably inevitable in the medium term, and Washington should prepare for it, including in the field of nuclear deterrence.

Just a week ago, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, accompanied by a planeload of German business leaders, traveled to Beijing to meet his Chinese counterpart, President Xi Jinping, newly re-elected to lead the country for a five-year term.

For the German Head of State, it was above all a question of strengthening economic cooperation between the two countries, China being a critical market for German exports, and the proper functioning of both its economy and its industry.

In Europe, this visit generated many reactions, with the concern of seeing Berlin increase its economic dependence vis-à-vis Beijing, and thus find itself, in the medium or long term, in a situation similar to that which it is. today because of its great dependence on Russian gas.

And if we are to believe the latest statements by Admiral Richard, head of the American Strategic Command or Stratcom, the country's deterrence, Chancellor Scholz's miscalculation, could take shape much faster than anticipated.

Indeed, speaking within the framework of the Naval Submarine League annual symposium, the American admiral painted a most disturbing picture. According to him, " The war in Ukraine right now is just an appetizer", and to add " The great (war) is coming, and it won't be long before we're tested like we haven't been for a long time."

The fact is, the opinion expressed by the head of Stratcom, is today largely dominant in the Pentagon, and most of his officials now explain that the confrontation with China seems inevitable, especially as the American armies face to major difficulties to which the People's Liberation Army does not seem, for its part, exposed, particularly in the industrial and technological fields.

Thus, for Admiral Richard, the American defense tool, including its deterrent tool, can be likened to a ship, but a sinking ship, slowly of course, but surely, while the famous crossing of the capability curves between the PLA and the US Armed Forces looms in the increasingly near future.

According to him, the only area in which the United States would retain a marked ascendancy over the PLA would be that of submarine warfare (note in passing that Admiral Richard is a submariner).

He adds, to speak only of the US Navy, that in the absence of a profound change in the industrial capacities of the country, but also in the methodology used to design and build American weapons, the Chinese ascendancy in the medium term would be inevitable, to the point that it could even undermine American deterrence which relies, for many, on a fleet of 12 nuclear submarines of very advanced machines.

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