Should a second fighter program be developed with certain Gulf countries?

After months of tension, Franco-German defense industrial cooperation programs broke the deadlock last week, with two agreements concerning the FCAS program for new generation combat aircraft, and MGCS for heavy armored vehicles of the future. According to the press releases published, it seems that the main points of friction have indeed been resolved, largely due to a softening of German positions in the face of the red lines of French industrialists. As such, a recent interview with Ralf Ketzel, CEO of Krauss Maffei Wegman, provides valuable context regarding the difficulties encountered within the MGCS program due to the arrival of Rheinmetall in the program, and especially the position of the Düsseldorf group vis-à-vis the program, considered to be counterproductive to say the least by the boss of KMW. In any case, from now on, these two programs seem to be once again on solid foundations allowing them to move forward effectively.

It is in this context that an article published by the Tribune today, regarding possible opportunities expressed by Saudi Arabia to acquire a significant number of aircraft Rafale to France. According to the article, citing corroborating sources close to the matter, if relations between Saudi Prince Mohammed bin Salman and French President Emmanuel Macron are far from good, which perhaps explains the arbitration in favor of the Spanish Navantia on the subject of the new Saudi frigates, the Kingdom is no less interested in the prospect of advanced cooperation with France, in particular in the field of combat aircraft. For Riyadh, in fact, the Rafale presents a double interest, beyond the fact of being a very efficient and reliable device, that of being both devoid of American technologies and German technologies, while the Saudi authorities fear a hardening of Berlin's positions in terms of export of defense technologies, and a gradual American disengagement from the Gulf.

In any case, beyond possible discussions around the acquisition of a vast fleet of Rafale, it would be a question of 100 to 200 aircraft, Riyadh would also have positioned itself vis-à-vis Paris as a potential partner for the FCAS program, if cooperation with Germany were to decline. For Riyadh, it would be a question of both developing its operational capabilities while there is nothing to indicate that Washington intends, in the relatively near future, to authorize the export of new generation combat aircraft such as the F-35A and even less like the NGAD towards Saudi Arabia, but also to develop its own industry and therefore its strategic autonomy. Obviously, the hypothesis of a failure of FCAS has become considerably more remote in recent days. However, the door opened by the Saudi negotiators deserves sustained attention from Paris, so as to design a second device, complementary to the FCAS NGF, with Riyadh and probably Abu Dhabi.

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