Does the United States want to prevent Ukraine from going on the offensive?

Article updated at 22:00 following the announcement by the United States of sending 30 to 50 M1A2 Abrams to Ukraine.

In recent weeks, the question of sending Western heavy tanks to Ukraine has become a central subject, both for the press and for many Western political figures. Under the leadership of the Polish authorities, it seems that this entire problem would come down to the German position alone, which refused to send heavy tanks Leopard 2 German or acquired from Germany, towards Kyiv. However, and as we already mentioned last week, the German position was in no way different from what it has been since the beginning of the conflict, namely that it agrees to deliver a new category of equipment only after the United States has done the same. Whatever the Poles say, and with them a good number of commentators more inclined to an emotional response than to analysis, it was not so much the German position which, in this dossier, had changed, but that of the States States, when the latter had refused to deliver the Abrams M1 tanks, even in small quantities, and this for several days, while this would have made it possible to release the posture of Berlin.

Yet the explanations put forward by the American authorities to explain this posture are very unconvincing, just as are the analyzes concerning Washington's ambition to massively sell second-hand Abrams to European armies to replace the Leopard 2 which would have been delivered, while in this context, it is probable that most of they will turn above all to the South Korean K2 more modern, economical and efficient, and above all able to be delivered much more quickly than the American Abrams. It should be noted in this respect that these same arguments put forward by Washington to justify the non-delivery of Abrams to Kyiv, namely the consumption and excessive maintenance of the tank, can act as a repellent for European armies wishing to replace the Leopard 2 potentially delivered.

At the same time, during the Ramstein conference, the American Chief of Staff, General Milley, for his part called on the Ukrainian armies and authorities to be cautious, in particular with regard to the ambitions put forward to resume the offensive once the new Western tanks have been received. And to argue that they have suffered losses in recent weeks that are too great to be able to resume an offensive posture, even despite the very numerous armaments promised to Ukraine at this same meeting, while everything indicates that the change of strategy initiated by Russia since mid-summer is now bearing fruit, both in military and industrial matters. In fact, by refusing the delivery of Abrams heavy tanks and by transitivity, by hampering the European dynamic to replace these tanks, didn't the United States try to prevent the Ukrainian authorities from embarking on a new offensive, which they would consider too risky in view of the new data surrounding this conflict?

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