While the conflict in Ukraine still seems far from over, a report by the think tank Rand corporation points to the threats that a bogged down conflict poses to US interests.
Created in 1948 by the American aircraft manufacturer Douglas, the Rand Corporation is today one of the most influential think tanks in the United States, particularly with regard to military and international affairs, especially since unlike other other major American think tanks, it is not politically affiliated.
In fact, his analyzes are most often evaluated with great attention by both American political decision-makers and the Pentagon. Since the beginning of the Ukrainian crisis, the Rand has produced a large number of often very relevant analyzes at a sustained pace.
The latest analysis, published on January 27, deserves special attention. In fact, beyond the tactical, economic and political analyses, it studies the risk of the Ukrainian conflict getting bogged down or spreading through specific critical data, namely the political, economic and strategic interests of the States. -United.
As we have already discussed in previous articles, the risk of a stalemate in the conflict, or even of its extension beyond the Ukrainian theater, has increased markedly in recent months, especially since Moscow has undertaken to change its approach of this war, passing from a purely tactical management at the beginning of the conflict, with very questionable results, to a strategic management based on the objective assets of the Kremlin, namely its defense industry and its demographic superiority.
Rand's analysis, titled " Avoiding a Long War – US Policy and the Trajectory of the Russian-Ukrainian Conflict“, is carrying out a methodical study of all the foreseeable risks and consequences linked to the probable stalemate of the conflict, while now neither Moscow nor Kyiv seem able to impose themselves militarily and durably on their adversary.
Firstly, the analysis studies all the parameters resulting from a probable stalemate in the conflict, with the two main major risks, which are the use of nuclear weapons, far from being ruled out by American analysts, and the extension of the conflict towards a confrontation between NATO and Russia, again considered much more plausible than generally accepted by specialists speaking in the media on this subject, even if a conventional direct confrontation between Russia and NATO would not be to the advantage of the first.
Three other analytical keys are also defined, namely the question of territorial control for the two belligerents, the question of the extension of the conflict over time and, finally, the different options for bringing this conflict to an end.
Following this, each of these criteria is studied with regard to its consequences on American interests. Without paraphrasing the analysis which is in free access, it is clear that for the United States, the risks and constraints resulting from a stalemate in this conflict, greatly exceed the few potential benefits of a conflict which would come to last. , over almost the entire analysis spectrum.
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