The BND, through its president Bruni Kahl, believes that Russia is capable of continuing the war for many months, even many years.
The launch of the Russian offensive took many intelligence services in Europe by surprise, including in France. The latter having weakened its intelligence apparatus in Russia to concentrate on the terrorist threat, could therefore only rely on on technological intelligence to form an opinion.
It is true that, for many specialists on the subject before February 24, if a Russian offensive against Ukraine was probably doomed to success, it would generate such significant losses and a determined international reaction that very few would venture. to think that Vladimir Putin could make such an error of judgment.
This was not the case for the Bundesnachrichtendienst, or BND, the German federal intelligence service. Indeed, during an event organized by the Federal Academy for Security Policy on May 22, its president, Bruno Kahl, gave details on the role of his service in this conflict . Thus, according to Mr Kahl, the German service had announced the imminence of a Russian offensive two weeks before the start of Russian operations in Ukraine, without venturing to give an exact date.
The BND believed, unlike the British and Americans, that the decision to launch the offensive would actually be taken individually and, so to speak, arbitrarily, by the Russian president, making it impossible to give a precise date. And to recall, in this respect, that the Anglo-Saxons had made a mistake twice before giving the correct date, just a few days before February 24.
To obtain this result, according to Bruno Kahl, the BND set up an important human intelligence network in Russia, giving it an effective understanding of ongoing developments within the Kremlin as well as the country's Armies and society. Obviously, this intelligence capture system remains in place and effective today, allowing the BND to have a relatively clear vision of the balance of forces in the country, and therefore of their influence on the conduct of the war.
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