Taiwan will not be able to resist a Chinese attack for more than 90 days without the intervention of the United States, according to RAND

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A possible Chinese attack on Taiwan has been the subject of numerous studies and simulations in recent years, even in the US Congress. However, it was always a matter of studying the issues ofan American intervention in such a case, so as to highlight the means necessary to succeed in imposing oneself against the People's Liberation Army, but also to assess the costs in terms of men and materials.

Le American think tank Rand set out to study this scenario under another hypothesis, obviously inspired by the posture followed by the United States and the Europeans to the Russian aggression against Ukraine.

Indeed, none of the member countries of NATO, any more than others, has intervened militarily to protect the Ukrainians from the Russian onslaught, limiting themselves to support, it is true growing, in terms of armaments , training, intelligence and reception of refugees, as well as economic and political sanctions against Moscow.

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For the Rand, it was therefore useful to study a possible Sino-Taiwanese conflict according to this hypothesis, to determine the conditions necessary for the Taiwanese armies, like their Ukrainian counterparts, to possibly contain a Chinese armed aggression.

The intervention of American forces is essential to contain a Chinese attack on the island, according to RAND
The intervention of American forces is essential to hope for a Chinese attack on the island, according to RAND

The conclusions of this report, however, are far from optimistic. Indeed, according to the think tank, Taiwan could not resist a Chinese attack for more than 90 days, in the best of cases, even if the country's armies were better equipped and better trained.

In fact, without a real American military intervention, Taiwan would necessarily and relatively quickly fall into the hands of Beijing, which is likely to convince the Chinese authorities to intervene at the slightest indication of weakness in the US determination to protect its ally.

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To reach this conclusion, the authors of the report studied Taiwanese resilience in many areas, well beyond the military and the country's armed forces, especially in social and political aspects.

LOGO meta defense 70 Military planning and plans | Military alliances | Amphibious assault

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