While ONERA and ArianeGroup tested the VMAX hypersonic glider for the first time, France now has all the bricks to develop the ultimate deterrent weapon: the fractional orbital bombardment system.
A few weeks ago, an article published by the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, attracted attention beyond the traditional readership of Thebulletin.org. This indeed showed that China now had all the technological bricks to design an orbital split bombing system new generation, likely to profoundly upset the balance of nuclear power relations in the world.
Concretely, Chinese engineers simultaneously demonstrated their ability to implement a traditional SOBF, during a test that took place in 2021, as well as the technology of hypersonic gliders, already in service on board the missile. DF-17.
The combination of these two technologies should enable China to benefit from the advantages of SOBF, namely the possibility of hitting any target on the planet with delays of less than 10 minutes, much lower than that of current intercontinental ballistic systems. , while correcting the weakness of the SOBF, namely its lack of precision, thanks to the technology of hypersonic gliders.
Not only would the joint implementation of these technologies considerably reduce adversary reaction times, rendering obsolete the current response procedures on which the effectiveness of deterrence is built, but it would make it possible to avoid ballistic detection systems currently in service, which would make it a most formidable first-strike weapon, likely to override the principle of mutual assured destruction on which peace was maintained during the Cold War.
To respond to this emerging strategic threat, only three options can be considered. The first, and the most improbable in the present circumstances, would be based on an international agreement prohibiting China, the United States and probably Russia, from developing this type of armament, as was the case, for example , when the INF agreement was signed prohibiting the United States and the Soviet Union, then Russia, from developing or possessing missiles with a range of 500 to 5.500 km.
This agreement, like all the strategic agreements of the Cold War, was only made possible after both sides scared each other during the Euromissile crisis between 1982 and 1985. As during the Cuba crisis which opened the door to the SALT treaties, the world had then come close to nuclear war, bringing Washington and Moscow to the negotiating table.
Today, nothing indicates that Beijing can respond favorably to such talks with Washington. China considers that its strategic power is much lower than that of the United States or Russia. As such, it is legitimate for the country to make up for this delay by developing new systems to ensure its own security, without refraining from developing much more efficient systems likely to upset the unstable global balances.
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