Faced with the likelihood of Donald Trump or Ron De Santis winning the 2024 presidential election, the American Senate has strictly regulated a possible presidential decision to leave NATO.
The least we can say is that the 2024 presidential elections in the United States promise to be close, whatever the scenario studied. Indeed, most of the polls in recent months on this subject show very close scores between the Democratic and Republican parties, whether it is an opposition between Joe Biden and Donald Trump, or whether the latter is replaced by the Governor of Florida, Ron de Santis.
However, if the scores are close, the consequences on the international scene depending on whether the Republican or Democratic candidate emerges victorious are radically different, not to say opposite.
Indeed, whether it is Donald Trump or Ron de Santis, Republican leaders are characterized by a strong desire for a return to a sort of American isolationism as was the case before the Second World War, going even to the point of a possible withdrawal from NATO, a hypothesis put forward several times by Donald Trump.
It is precisely to control such excesses that Democratic Senator from Virginia Tim Kaine and his Republican counterpart from Florida, Senator Marco Rubio, have adopted, as part of the 2024 Pentagon finance law, an amendment requiring the ( future) American administration to obtain a two-thirds majority by a vote in the Senate to allow a withdrawal of the United States from NATO .
Interestingly, 18 Republican senators voted for the proposed amendment alongside the 47 Democratic senators present, while 28 Republicans voted against it. This balance of power within the Republican Party shows that even within the Great Old Party, the hypothesis of a victory by Donald Trump or Ron de Santis next year is worrying.
This is not the first time that such an initiative has been taken by the American Senate. Already, in 2019, it had put in place safeguards to govern possible decisions by President Donald Trump regarding a possible withdrawal from NATO. In 2021, although less imminent, the medium-term threat was considered pressing enough for Senator Marco Rubio, again, to pass an amendment to the 2022 finance law in this area.
The fact is, many parliamentarians and political figures across the Atlantic fear the potential consequences of a return of Donald Trump to the White House in 2024, or that of his challenger, Ron de Santis, the latter not being less excessive in its positions on international issues.
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