End of American aid to Ukraine in 2025: Zelensky is discreetly preparing for it


American aid to Ukraine has been, since the beginning of the Russian aggression, the logistical pillar of the Ukrainian resistance, as well as the catalyst for all Western aid, playing a strategic role for Kyiv. This aid is all the more critical since Ukrainians and Russians know that the war will last several years, even if the media and Western leaders are focusing today on the ongoing offensive in the Zaporozhye oblast.

In this context, the return to the White House of Donald Trump, like that of Ron de Santis, could represent an existential threat for Ukraine, both having threatened to cut American military assistance to Kyiv. However, it seems that, for several months, President Zelensky has undertaken to anticipate such a cataclysm in order to be able to continue the fight, even without the support of Washington.

The growing threat of the end of US aid to Ukraine

With $76,8 billion in aid to Ukraine between the start of the conflict and July 2023, including €46,6 billion in military aid, the United States is by far the largest contributor to the war effort in the face of Moscow's aggression. In addition, each month, Washington grants Kyiv a new package of military aid ranging from $250 to $400 million, containing in particular numerous ammunition, armored vehicles, drones and many other equipment.

American aid to Ukraine has often served as a detonator for European countries, as with the delivery of M777 light howitzers.
American aid to Ukraine has often served as a detonator for European countries, such as during the delivery of the M777 light howitzers that paved the way for the Caesars, Pzh2000s and other European Archers.

Beyond this direct aid, American support for Ukraine has been, in numerous examples, a driving force in “unblocking” certain reluctance in Europe. This was specifically the case concerning the delivery of artillery systems and then Western heavy tanks, with Berlin refusing to deliver, or to authorize the delivery of Leopard 2 in Kyiv, before the United States announced the delivery of M1 Abrams.

In fact, when Donald Trump, big favorite in the Republican primaries, but also his dolphin Ron de Santis, the governor of Florida, declare themselves opposed to the continuation of American aid to Ukraine if they were to win the next elections US presidential elections of 2024, the subject is obviously cause for concern in Kyiv.

This is all the more the case that today, the polls put Donald Trump and Joe Biden neck and neck in the margin of error, while 12 to 14% of Americans say they are still undecided. In addition, with age, Joe Biden's candidacy is questionable, while the hypothesis of a duel between Donald Trump and Vice-President Kamala Harris gives a clear victory to the former president.

A hypothesis at the heart of Russian strategy in Ukraine

Moreover, this threat has not escaped Moscow, which has, in part, reorganized its defense effort and its planning, precisely to be able to take advantage of Ukraine's weakening if Washington were to end its support. Thus, the Russian armies now apply a strictly defensive posture, aiming to erode Ukrainian military means, while minimizing its own losses, at the cost of limited losses of territory.

Russian Tank Factory uralvagonzavod e1662477432878 Defense Policy | Germany | military alliances
Russian industrial production now threatens the military balance in Ukraine in the medium term

At the same time, the Russian defense industry has been reorganized so as to considerably increase its production rates, particularly in terms of armour, artillery systems and ammunition.

In fact, if the American umbilical cord were to break at the end of 2024, following a possible victory for Donald Trump, Moscow would then have considerable influence over the Ukrainian defenders who would thus depend on European support to resist. However, to date, nothing indicates that the Europeans have taken the measure of such a risk, and of the responsibility that would fall to them if American support were to dry up.


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