Support for Ukraine: Europe does not want to take over from the United States

Europe cannot fill the void left by a possible end of support for Ukraine from the United States! This is in substance the statement made recently by Joseph Borrell when questioned by journalists on the hypothesis of the end of American military aid to Kyiv. What are the consequences, as well as the reality, of this declaration by the head of European diplomacy?

Since the start of the conflict in Ukraine in February 2022, Americans and Europeans have, so to speak, fairly shared the task of supporting Kyiv, both in the area of ​​military equipment and the financial aid necessary for the Ukrainian state to function.

Balanced support for Ukraine between the United States and Europe since the start of the conflict

Indeed, the EU committed to providing aid of €20 billion per year, for €100 billion in total aid, shortly after the start of Russian aggression. At the same time, the American Congress announced overall aid of €113 billion for Kyiv, for the same purpose.

This parity is also seen in the execution of these commitments. Thus, Washington has already transferred €28 billion in budgetary aid and €43 billion in military aid to Kyiv for a total of €71 billion.

The European Union and its members, for their part, allocated immediate budgetary aid reaching €33 billion to Ukraine, and transferred €28 billion worth of military equipment and ammunition, for a total of €61 billion. By adding British and Norwegian aid, parity between the two allied powers is almost perfect.

A threatened balance in Europe and the United States

This dynamic, which allowed Kyiv and its armies to more than resist the Russian offensive for 20 months, is today threatened on both sides of the Atlantic. In Europe, on the one hand, several countries have announced that they are arriving at the limits of arms stocks that can be mobilized for transfer to Ukraine.

Above all, certain EU members are taking a more assertive distance from the policy of support for European Kyiv. This was already the case, since the start of the conflict, of Hungary and its president Viktor Orban. This is now also the case for Slovakia, following the victory of populist nationalist Robert Fico in the legislative elections of September 30, 2023.

US military aid suspended by Congress pending vote on 2024 federal budget

But the greatest threat to the future of the Ukrainian resistance comes from Washington. Indeed, with the objective of avoiding the “shutdown” of federal institutions in the face of the Republican refusal to vote on the 2024 budget, Congress voted for a procedure allowing this financing for a few weeks. However, this excludes the possibility of financing, over this period, the Ukrainian war effort.

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