Monday, December 4, 2023

For their military aid to Russia, what has Moscow promised to Iran and North Korea?

Friday October 13, John Kirby, the spokesperson for the American National Security Council, presented a series of documents to support the hypothesis of North Korean military support for Russia, particularly in the form of transfers of numerous containers of artillery ammunition.

This support is reminiscent of that obtained, from the start of Russian aggression against Ukraine, from Iran, particularly in the form of very long-range Shahed 136 attack drones, widely used since.

But if it is relatively easy to determine the nature of Iranian and North Korean military aid to Russia, the nature of the counterparts offered by Moscow remains obscure for the moment, even if these will, in all probability, be , of only three types.

Although both deny it, evidence has continued to accumulate for several months concerning the military assistance provided by Tehran first, then by Pyongyang, then to Russia, to support its military effort in Ukraine. .

Military aid to Russia from Iran and North Korea

Thus, numerous debris and elements collected by the Ukrainian forces showed that Iran had indeed delivered several hundred very long-range Shahed 136 attack drones to Moscow, and allowed Russian companies to copy most of their elements. to design the Geranium attack drone.

Military aid to Russia: Shahed 136
The Iranian Shahed 136 allowed Russian armies to bypass effective Ukrainian anti-aircraft and anti-missile defenses, and to strike certain civilian infrastructures at lower cost.

More recently, at the end of a highly publicized visit by Kim Jong-un, the North Korean leader, to Moscow , the American National Security Council announced that it had obtained indisputable elements about the sending, by the North Korea, a thousand containers by rail to Russia .

According to American intelligence, these would be military equipment and especially ammunition, while for the first time in 20 months of war, the Ukrainian armies fired more artillery shells than the Russian army last week.

If this Iranian and North Korean aid is probably not decisive for the future of the conflict in Ukraine, even if it plays a significant role, it has certainly not been obtained without compensation from Moscow.

Considering the very specific situations of these two countries, on the index and under sanctions of the international community, and the threats to which their leaders think they are exposed, the compensation obtained by Pyongyang and Tehran from the Kremlin, can be of three types .

Russian veto at the United Nations Security Council

The first, and not the least, is based on Russia's seat as a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council, and above all on the permanent right of veto which attaches to this position in the hands of only five countries (China, States -United States, France, United Kingdom and Russia).

United Nations Security Council e1603714185404
Russian support for the United Nations Security Council would allow Tehran and Pyongyang to see international sanctions erode over time, at least outside the Western bloc.

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Fabrice Wolf
Fabrice Wolfhttps://meta-defense.fr/fabrice-wolf/
A former French naval aeronautics pilot, Fabrice is the editor and main author of the Meta-defense.fr site. His areas of expertise are military aeronautics, defense economics, air and submarine warfare, and Akita inu.

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