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The counter-offensive is a failure, and it's my mistake... This is in essence the speech given by General Zaluzhny, chief of staff and commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian armies since the start of the war, in an interview given to the British weekly The Economist.
After 12 months of overplayed euphoria, both by the Ukrainian authorities and by the Western media, after the spectacular successes obtained by the Ukrainian fighters at the end of the summer and in the spring of 2022, and an exaggerated confidence in the success of an ambitious counter-offensive, the new posture of the man who is elevated to the rank of national icon by the Ukrainians, is cause for concern.
The pessimistic observation of General Zaluzhny, commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian armies
For the general of Kyiv, in fact, the counter-offensive started last May only made it possible to recover the equivalent of 17 km of depth along the front line, facing a much more efficient Russian defensive system. than imagined by the Ukrainian general staff, and by its Western advice.
Above all, Zaluzhny recognizes that he had bet on the effects of a war of attrition to erode the Kremlin's resolve. However, after 150 killed according to him, the Russian armies, no more than the power of Vladimir Putin, seem to be wavering on their bases.
The conflict tends to transform from a war of attrition to a war of position, which gives, in the opinion of the Ukrainian chief of staff, a certain advantage in the long term to Russia, which has a powerful defense industry, a population made docile by the elimination of counter-powers, and opponents, and by the elimination of all forms of protest, and by a predictable erosion of Western aid obviously in course of erosion.
General Zaluzhny's conclusion is also tinged with pessimism, since although recognizing the risks of such tactics, he believes he must maintain an offensive posture, in order to prevent this conflict from transforming the front line into border in a status quo which would signify the end of Ukrainian hopes of regaining its territorial integrity and a strategic victory for Vladimir Putin.
Ukrainian blindness exacerbated by Western media dynamics
The fact is, the bitter observation of the Ukrainian chief of staff should not come as a surprise. In fact, for many months there have been clear signs that allow us to understand the strategy at work on the Russian side, but also the blindness of the Ukrainian authorities, bathed in a self-perpetuated legend of military and technological superiority supported by the West.
So, from January 2023, the Russian announcements concerning the production of tanks and armored vehicles, provided key elements for assessing the Russian strategy and timetable, based on a medium and long term vision, and a trajectory aimed at military superiority through the mobilization of industry defense and the erosion of Western aid to Ukraine.
In addition, the density of the defensive system deployed by the Russian armies, at the initiative of the Russian general Sergei Surovikin, from September 2022, allowed Moscow's forces to establish a front line which has hardly moved since, except on the occasion of tactical redeployment, leading Kyiv towards an offensive which could only save very costly in terms of men and materials.
A Russian trajectory impossible to contain for the Ukrainian armies
However, in these areas, the means available to the Kremlin are considerably greater than those in the hands of Zelensky. On the one hand, Russian public opinion is now entirely on mental life support, being harassed every day by shameless propaganda, while all incidental or independent voices have been muted.
At the same time, the country has actively transformed itself to absorb the consequences of Western sanctions as quickly as possible, and to strengthen its war economy.
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[…] The counter-offensive is a failure, and it is my mistake… This is in essence the speech given by General Zaluzhny, Chief of Staff and Commander-in-Chief […]