sunday, november 10, 2024

The Russian military threat against Europe will be critical from 2028, according to Polish security.

For the head of the BBN, the Polish National Security Bureau, faced with the Russian military threat, Europeans only have three to five years to react to the reconstruction of its military tools, and avoid a new conflict. comes to strike Europe, this time involving members of NATO.

Far from being particularly alarmist, this analysis is shared by a growing number of reports, which express concern about industrial and mobilization capacities in Russia, while Europeans seem locked in an erroneous perception of the threat and its timetable.

While just a few months ago many were singing the praises of the Ukrainian armies and Western support for Kyiv to contain a perceived Russian threat in full disintegration, the mood has radically changed in recent months around of these subjects.

Between the rapid and sustained rise of the Russian defense industry, the Kremlin's control over the country's population and public opinion, and the proven disintegration of Western support for the Ukrainian armed forces, the Pessimism is now required regarding this conflict with, at best, the hope of a frozen front which would allow Kyiv to retain its independence, if not its entire territory.

The rapid reconstruction of the Russian Armies if the conflict in Ukraine were to end, or to lose intensity

Beyond the obviously shared responsibilities around this situation, between Ukrainians too sure of their strengths and Russian weakness, Americans mired in domestic political considerations, and Europeans quicker to give advice than arms and ammunition, The foreseeable end of the conflict in Ukraine, or its stabilization, is generating new concerns in Europe.

Leopard 2A4 Ukrainian
European armaments certainly arrived too late and in too few numbers to allow an effective victory for Ukraine against Russia.

Indeed, if the current dynamic continues, the Russian armies will be able to quickly rebuild their operational capabilities once the conflict has ended, with a country entirely focused on a war economy, and public opinion under control. At the same time, despite American and European promises of support until Kyiv's total victory, neither have taken the measure of the transformation caused by this conflict on European geopolitics. .

With a Russian defense industry having multiplied by two, sometimes by three or more, its production rates of defense equipment, Russian armies having made their difficult transformation with pain in Ukraine, and a Kremlin in full confidence, the prospects of a rapid reconstruction of Russian military capabilities after the end or freezing of the conflict in Ukraine, are now worrying the Western services in charge of these issues.

Three to five years to counter developing Russian military threat, says head of Polish National Security Office

This is how the head of the Polish National Security Bureau (BBN), Jacek Siewiera, also minister delegate attached to the country's presidency, showed himself to be most concerned, not to say pessimistic, when he was questioned by a journalist about a report produced by the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP).

According to this document, NATO would have a period of 5 to 10 years to respond to the rapid evolution of the Russian threat, and thus prevent a new war from breaking out in Europe, at the initiative of a Russia in full confidence having found sufficient military tools to attack certain countries of the Atlantic Alliance, such as the Baltic States.

Russian military threat industry Uralvagonzavod
Russian military industrial production has doubled, sometimes tripled and more, since the start of the conflict in Ukraine, according to Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin.

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