Unable to support Ukraine, can Europeans resist Russia militarily?

What contrasts today with the speeches that were made just a year ago, both by politicians and on television, concerning the Russian-Ukrainian conflict.

Where an artificial euphoria, deliberately ignoring the transformations carried out in Russia to correct the weaknesses noted in the first months of war, promised a rout of the Russian armies in the face of the Ukrainian counter-offensive, equipped with new Western armored vehicles, a feeling of defeat now affects to the presidency in Kyiv.

THowever, beyond the very future of Ukraine, which we know is decisive for security in Europe, the limits that Europeans are reaching today, incapable as they are of supporting the Ukrainian armies, facing to the Russian threat, a country twelve times less rich, and four times less populated than Western Europe, raises another question, also left under the carpet: are Europeans, today, capable of sustaining a confrontation military with Russia?

No more shells, no more surface-to-air missiles: a wave of panic hits Ukraine

The echoes coming today from Ukraine show a situation of advanced weakness of the armies of Kyiv, to face the Russian armies. According to reports made by Western journalists present alongside the Ukrainian forces, the absence of anti-aircraft missiles and shells created major failures in the hardening of the front line, raising fears of catastrophic scenarios, such as a rupture of this line, and the crushing of certain Ukrainian cities, such as Kharkiv, under Russian bombs and missiles.

Ukraine M777
Ukrainian artillery is now heavily handicapped by the lack of shells.

Even the Ukrainian presidency is showing obvious signs of excitement, and a concern that is difficult to feign, even for a former actor. And for good reason ! The cessation of American aid since the end of December 2023, blocked by the House of Representatives with a Republican majority, has deprived the Ukrainian armies of the umbilical cord that kept them afloat.

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  1. Towards the beginning of the article, it is written under the photo of the M777 "Even the Russian presidency shows obvious signs of excitement" instead of the Ukrainian presidency, a small slip of the tongue which gives a completely different meaning to the sentence (at At first I thought it was Putin who was excited about his upcoming victory).

  2. Too bad the article does not address the artillery coalition led by France which got its hands on 1.5 million 152 and 155 mm shells (and which is arriving on the front but not quickly enough that's for sure).

    • These are external stocks, not production, therefore not sustainable over time. ditto for the SCALP/Storm Shadow that Fr and Uk are trying to recover in Greece, Morocco, UAE etc. to send them to Ukraine. It's a one-shot. So, that doesn't fit into the medium-term equation, at the heart of the subject of the article.

  3. the first problem comes from the desire of the USA for 10 years to annihilate the European arms industry, which means that Europe is incapable of really helping Ukraine today, after each country separately to its balls, France is the economy (and this is likely to last), Germany like Scrooge is obsessed by its flourishing economic situation, after having reached the end of its Russophile logic, is transferring everything towards China, not to mention its unhealthy distrust of vis-à-vis France, Italy considers that the state of its navy, not to mention its proximity to Russia. So the EU is above all a free trade territory, but each country plays its own tune, which makes the EU more of a prey than a predator, it will be all the more glaring whether Trump or not, the USA's eye is turned now to China.


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