According to Lockheed Martin, the F-35 fighter will continue to represent the backbone of Western air forces until 2080. At that date, the 5th generation fighter, which entered service in 2015 (F-35A of the US Air Force), will be 65 years old, and will have seen more than three generations of pilots.
This dynamic is far from exclusive to the F-35. Thus, the Rafale Dassault Aviation, which entered service in 2000, will continue to fly with the French air force until 2060, as will the Typhoon European or the American F-15EX.
While combat aircraft had a lifespan of 15 to 20 years within the forces, in the 50s and 60s, technological developments, but also the increase in the costs of developing and acquiring aircraft, led the air forces to try to increase the effective lifespan of their aircraft, through great scalability allowing them to be equipped with new capabilities, and great versatility, to simplify and harmonize the forces, without losing capabilities.
These paradigms are now the force of dogmas, particularly concerning the development of new combat aircraft such as the European SCAF and GCAP, or the American NGAD, all three designed to last more than 50 to 60 years, while maintaining operational efficiency superior to that of the adversary.
However, do these certainties regarding the effectiveness of these paradigms, which determine the conduct and ambitions of combat aircraft programs today, but also the format of fighter fleets, stand up to a comparative analysis, compared to a more conventional model, with shortened cycles, more specialized and less scalable aircraft, and smaller series? It is far from obvious...
In this section:
Scalability and versatility, the key paradigms of modern combat aircraft
In 1990, the French Air Force operated 7 different models of combat aircraft: the Mirage 2000 C and Mirage 2000N for air defense and airborne deterrence, the Mirage F1CT and CR for attack and reconnaissance, the Jaguar for attack, the Mirage IVP for strategic reconnaissance, the F-8 Crusader for carrier-based air defense, the Super Étendard for carrier-based attack and the Étendard IVP for carrier-based reconnaissance.
In 2030, these same air forces will only have two fighter models: the Rafale, in versions A, B and M, and the Mirage 2000D, the latter due to leave service by 2035, for a fleet entirely composed of Rafale, but still capable of very effectively ensuring all the missions of the French air forces, including deterrence and embarked air and naval forces.
Replacing seven models with a single fighter represents numerous advantages for them, particularly in terms of training maintenance personnel and crews, as well as in terms of flow management for maintaining the aircraft in operational condition.
Not only the Rafale is able to do everything, and do it well, but it is remarkably capable of evolving. Thus, the Rafale The 1 F2000, a carrier-based air superiority fighter, has little in common in terms of capabilities with the Rafale F4 arriving, a truly multi-mission aircraft, even though it is the same cell.
From a budgetary point of view, having a fully versatile aircraft, capable of evolving over the years to acquire new capabilities in order to remain at the pinnacle of the air force, seems to tick all the boxes for having an optimized fighter fleet. Indeed, versatility allows streamline this fleet, while scalability allows aircraft to be kept for longer without degrading operational performance, and therefore, to acquire new fighters less often.
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