Published on September 5, 2024, the news Strategic Review 2024 of the Dutch Armed Forces paints an objective and, rightly, worrying picture of current and future international tensions, and of the threats they pose to the country, to Europe and to the Atlantic Alliance, and of the efforts that will be made, in the years to come, by The Hague, to respond to them, and to try to dissuade them.
The 68-page document, concise and synthetic, thus hammers home certain truths that many Europeans pretend to ignore, such as the reality of the Russian threat to Eastern European countries, the consequences of a Sino-American conflict for Europe, or the need for European countries to acquire European equipment to increase the overall resilience of the Western bloc.
In this section:
The transformation of the Dutch armed forces since 2017
While the Dutch armies were among the most weakened by the benefits of peace after the Cold War, the Netherlands was also the Western European country that reacted earliest and most firmly to the return of tensions in Europe.
Thus, at the beginning of the 2010s, The Hague devoted barely more than 1% of its GDP to its armies, which were also significantly reduced after losing all of the thousand tanks. Leopard 2A4NL, or 75% of its fighter fleet.
Like all members of the Atlantic Alliance, the Dutch authorities committed to increasing their defence effort to 2% of GDP by 2025, at the Cardiff summit in 2014. And like all Western European allies, The Hague did not initially show any eagerness to achieve this.
The shooting down of flight MH17 over Donbass by Russian air defenses, and the 196 Dutch people who lost their lives at the time, caused a brutal awakening in the country and a deep trauma.
Since then, the Netherlands has been the Western European country that has made the greatest relative effort to increase its spending, but also to quickly give its armies the means necessary to face the evolution of threats, in Europe and in the World.
Thus, Dutch defence spending increased from €8,5 billion and 1,2% of GDP in 2017 to €22 billion and 1,9% of GDP in 2024, enabling the armed forces to launch several major programmes, such as the expansion of the fighter fleet from 36 to 52 F-35As, the replacement of the Karel Doorman-class ASW frigates and the Tripartite minehunters, the order for H225 M Caracal manoeuvre helicopters for the special forces, and, more recently, the launch of the programme for the replacement of the Walrus-class submarines by 4 Blacksword Barracuda submarines.
The Strategic Review 2024 aims to prepare the Dutch armed forces for a direct or covert confrontation with Russia and China
La 2024 Strategic Review, which has just been published by the Dutch Ministry of Defence, constitutes the framework which will make it possible to structure and complete this profound transformation of the country's armies.
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This is a good trend. However, let's keep our feet on the ground. The Netherlands has become rich not through any particular technical excellence but simply through the lowering of customs duties and unlimited exports to its European neighbours. They have therefore not contributed to the enrichment of Europe, they have simply captured the increase in European trade for their own benefit. Hence an advantageous financial situation, resulting from economic liberalism. Nothing extraordinary. I would be curious to see their position the day they have to fire a cannon shot at a Chinese cargo ship, which remains to this day the reason for their prosperity. You don't go from being a stowaway of European prosperity and security to a monster of virtue in the blink of an eye. Some actions are taken, so much the better. But the uncooperative policies of Germany and the Netherlands have left significant traces.
As a former sailor, I would tell you that I would certainly trust the Dutch Navy more than some of the other, much larger NATO navies in Europe if it came to going into combat… The Dutch are a bit like the Belgians. Their governments don't show much, but their military gets the job done.
A little flashback:
Dutch far-right politician Pim Fortuyn was assassinated in the 2000s
He was an opponent of the Netherlands' participation in the F-35 (Joint Strike Fighter) program. He considered the project a waste of public funds and a bad strategic choice for the Netherlands. In his opinion, the billions of euros that the government planned to spend on the acquisition of these fighter jets could have been better used elsewhere, for example to strengthen public services or other national priorities.
In 2002, The Guardian published an article citing speculation surrounding Fortuyn's assassination and his opposition to the F-35 program. Some speculated that his stance against the project may have created tensions with influential groups, although no concrete evidence has ever emerged to prove a direct link between his murder and the issue.
The vote was won again!