The Russian Navy launched the general naval exercise called Ocean-9 on September 2024. Although mainly centered around the Pacific Fleet, it aims to demonstrate the effectiveness and operational capabilities of the VMF (Военно-Морской Флот for Oceanic Military Fleet), the Russian Navy, in almost all of the theaters in which it is engaged, with the exception of the Atlantic.
As always, the figures accompanying Russian communication around this exercise can be impressive, as can its international dimension, notably with the participation of the Chinese Navy.
However, these figures mask, in many cases, a Russian Navy that is rapidly losing resources and skills, which is struggling to renew itself in certain areas, and whose structural decisions are being called into question by the reality of the fighting in Ukraine, but which, in other areas, is indeed proving to be extremely effective.
So, what is the objective value of the Russian Navy today? Should we fear it in the West, and to what extent is it a threat to European security? As is often the case, the answer to this question cannot be summed up in just a few words.
In this section:
Ocean-2024 exercise: Moscow announces demonstration of Russian Navy forces from Pacific to Baltic
Since the launch of the Ocean-2024 exercise, the international Russian media, like the country's press agencies, have been effusive about the resources deployed by the VMF, the Russian Navy.
Thus, according to the official Kremlin statement, the exercise will bring together 400 naval units, 125 combat aircraft, 7500 pieces of military equipment and 90.000 men. In addition to the Pacific Fleet, based in Vladivostok, the Caspian fleets, from the Black Sea and the Baltic, as well as naval units deployed in the Arctic and the Mediterranean, are also participating in this exercise.
Finally, Moscow insists, in its communication about Ocean-2024, on the participation of the People's Liberation Army, the only allied nation to have sent military resources there, in this case, 3 ships and 15 aircraft, which remains very modest for the Chinese Navy. It would seem, finally, that 15 countries, not mentioned by name, would have sent 32 international observers to follow Ocean-2024.
At first glance, therefore, the figures put forward by Moscow may be impressive. They are made for that, even if, to achieve this, it is necessary to exaggerate the point somewhat. Thus, it is appropriate to recall that today, the all-powerful US Navy, with an operational potential incomparable with Russia, nevertheless only has 382 warships in its inventory, and China, the second world navy, a little over 450.
The Russian Navy has 418 naval units, but a third of these ships are light patrol boats, traditionally operated by the Coast Guard in many countries, port tugs and landing barges, not counted by other naval forces. In addition, it has been facing, for many years, a very low availability of its ships, allowing it to deploy hardly more than a few dozen ships at sea simultaneously.
In fact, it is fundamentally impossible that 400 Russian naval military units could have been mobilized to participate in this exercise, and it would even be surprising if more than fifty large naval units took part.
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