The Scorpene Evolved faces a market of more than 50 conventional submarines by 2035 (2/2)

With the sale of 2 Scorpene Evolved submarines to Indonesia, 4 Blacksword Barracuda to the Netherlands, and the very likely upcoming signing of the order for 3 additional Scorpene submarines by India, the year 2024 s Already announced as a historic year for Naval Group in terms of submarine exports.

With the Scorpene model, a 2000 ton conventional propulsion submarine, acquired by Chile (2 ships delivered in 2005/2006), Malaysia (2 ships delivered in 2009), India (6 submarines forming the Kalvari class manufactured locally from 2009 to 2024) and Brazil (4 submarines manufactured locally from 2018 to 2025), the Scorpene had managed, until then, almost as well as the Daphnée, a submarine of 1000 tonnes exported in 15 examples from 1965 to 1975, to the Spanish, Pakistani, Portuguese and South African navies, a score which will soon be exceeded with the sale of 3 additional Kalvaris to the Indian Navy.

This new French record could well be destined to last only a short time. Indeed, with its new Scorpene Evolved, Naval Group has a model combining the recognized reliability of the Scorpene, and the performance that the new Lithium-ion batteries will give it, constituting a clear competitive advantage over its main rivals, such as the Type 214. German and the Swedish A26.

Above all, a formidable market is opening up for the Scorpene Evolved, while more than a dozen world navies have started consultations to replace a total of more than fifty conventionally powered submarines by 2035.

Second part of the article. The first part can be viewed here.

11 submarines in Europe: Greece, Poland, Romania

In the world, there are only eight manufacturers offering military submarines on the international market. Four of them, the German TKMS, the Spanish Navantia, the Swedish Saab Kockums and the French Naval Group, are European. It is therefore not surprising that the European submarine market is the most tense and competitive there is.

Thus, in recent years, several major contracts in this area have been signed between European navies and industrialists from the old continent, most often with the German TKMS, until now almost untouchable, here as elsewhere.

Portugal and Greece thus opted for the German Type 214, respectively for 2 examples (2010) and 4 examples (2010-2016), while Norway chose the German Type 212 CD for 4 examples, in 2019, against Naval Group's Scorpene, after Berlin offered to acquire two submarines of this type for the Bundesmarine, and to assume the R&D costs of the class.

Italy, for its part, recently announced the order for two additional Type 212 NFS, to bring its fleet to six ships. The French Naval Group has, for its part, established itself in the Netherlands in 2024, for four Blacksword Barracuda submarines, intended to replace the 4 Walrus of the Dutch Navy.

Today, there remain three navies having launched, or will soon launch, competitions for the acquisition of new submarines in Europe. The most imminent contract is Polish, and concerns the construction of three submarines which will form the Orca class.

According to Warsaw, the ships must be capable of both coastal missions, particularly in the Baltic Sea, and oceanic missions, in the North Atlantic and the North Sea. In addition, they will have to have great autonomy at sea, and carry strike missiles towards land.

In this matter, Naval Group seems confident. The French offer can rely on the unrestricted export of the MdCN cruise missile with a change of environments, giving it a major advantage.

However, we do not know whether the French company is offering the Scorpene Evolved or the Blacksword Barracuda in Warsaw, the manufacturer being, as always, very discreet around this issue. In addition, the other manufacturers participating in this competition, such as Navantia, TKMS, Hanwha Ocean and Kockums, are also very willing to try to win.

Romania, for its part, had launched a competition in 2021, to regain submarine capacity in the Black Sea, and had announced, in 2023, the choice in favor of the Scorpene from Naval Group, as well as the imminence of the signing of the contract .

However, since then, this program has been suspended, Bucharest having judged that the urgency for the country lay in the rapid acquisition of combat tanks and infantry fighting vehicles, artillery systems, and F aircraft. -35A, and not submarines, while the Russian Black Sea Fleet seems partly neutralized, and largely weakened, by Ukrainian strikes over the past two and a half years.

Finally, the Hellenic Navy will have, in the next few years, to begin replacing its 6 Type 209 submarines still in service, these ships having joined the service in the 70s. , towards TKMS to replace the first 4 Type 209s between 2010 and 2016.

However, the rapprochement between Athens and Paris, particularly in the face of the Turkish threat, in recent years, with the acquisition of fighters Rafale and FDI frigates by the Greek armies, could reshuffle the cards in this matter, and give the Scorpene Evolved a proven chance against the TKMS Type 214, especially since the latter is also implemented by the Turkish Navy.

14 submarines in Asia: India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines

The Asian market also promises to be very dynamic in the coming ten years, regarding the sale of submarines. Thus, India must soon order the three Kalvari class submarines negotiated on the occasion of Narendra Modi's official visit to Paris, for the celebrations of July 14, 2023, alongside 26 Rafale for the Indian Navy.

This contract will only be a warm-up for the P75i program. Successor to the P75 which turned to the Scorpene to give birth to the Kalvari Class, the P75i program was initially to involve the acquisition of six submarines equipped with reliable AIP technology, to strengthen the Indian submarine fleet. .

However, the arrival of lithium-ion batteries, and the Scorpene Evolved, chosen by Indonesia, could well encourage the Indian Navy to ignore AIP technology, also developed internally by the DRDO, and turn to directly towards this model and this much more promising technology.

Indonesia, in fact, plans to order 4 new submarines in the coming years, beyond of the two Scorpene Evolved ordered from Naval Group, and which will be built by PT PAL on the spot. Of course, if the first contract goes well, Jakarta will have every interest in capitalizing on the industrial tools deployed during this first contract, rather than having to, again, invest in a new technological solution.

In 2021, the Philippines launched a call for tenders for the acquisition of two submarines, and the construction of port and technical infrastructure to maintain the ships. Faced with a very aggressive Spanish offer, and a major offensive from Hanwha Océan, it seemed, however, that Naval Group's offer remained very attractive for Manila. However, recent tensions with China in the South China Sea have led the country's authorities to reorder their investment priorities, without it being known, precisely, whether the program was simply postponed or canceled.

La Malaise, finally, announced its intention to order, by the end of the decade, two additional submarines, in addition to the two Scorpene already in service. It seems that Kuala Lumpur today favors the possibility of turning to the new model of submarine currently being designed in Türkiye.

However, as the Spanish example has shown, acquiring the skills necessary to design an effective military submarine is far from simple, or quick, even if in the field of armament , Ankara has shown great qualities of progress in recent years.

19 submarines in South America: Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador and Peru

The most promising market for conventional submarines in the next ten years is undoubtedly South America, while six navies from this continent will have to replace up to 19 Type 209 and Type 206 submarines entered in service in the 70s and 80s, and still in operation today.

Argentina could be the first to act in this area, especially now that the country has emerged from the systemic economic crisis, announced a few weeks ago. Thus, Admiral Carlos Ivielli, Chief of Staff of the Argentine Navy, announced that he had transmitted the evaluations of the two proposals received from the German TKMS and the French Naval Group, a few days ago.

Although remaining discreet about the content of this evaluation, he indicated that the offer transmitted by a state company (Naval Group), seemed to offer more interesting guarantees and support than the other, while certain information reported a particularly offensive French offer to Buenos Aires, including a financial component entirely closed and secured by Coface.

If Brazil will complete the execution of the construction of the Riachuelo class, with the entry into service of the last ship planned for 2025, and the Brazilian Navy prioritizing the construction of its first SSN, the Alvaro Alberto, it will have to replace the two remaining Type 209 Tupi class submarines in service, although these entered service in the mid-2000s.

Like Brazil, Chile will soon have to replace the two Type 209 submarines still in service, forming the Thomson class, both of which entered service in 1984. Santiago having been the first export customer of the Scorpene, with two units in service, the Scorpene Evolved appears, here again, in the favorite position, especially since the French ships are very popular with Chilean submariners.

Bogotá is also in the same situation, and will have to replace its two Type 209 submarines of the Pijao class, which entered service in 1975, as well as the two Type 206 acquired second-hand from Germany, in 2015. However , the urgency today, for the Colombian authorities, concerns the replacement of the Kfir C10 fighter planes, soon grounded after the diplomatic quarrel with Israel, having led to the cancellation of the maintenance contract for the aircraft.

The Peruvian Navy, here, serves as a potential strategic client. With 6 Type 209 submarines to replace, it is at the same level as countries like India or Indonesia in this area, despite a still very low GDP, of $260 billion in 2023. It is very possible, under these conditions, that the country divides the renewal of this fleet into several batches.

Finally, Ecuador will, for its part, have to replace the, again, two Type 209 submarines in service, by 2035, when the ships will be 67 years old. However, here again, the limited budget of the Ecuadorian Navy could limit Quito's options in this area.

8 to 13 submarines in Africa and the Middle East: Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Morocco

If certain land or air weapons are over-represented in the Middle East and Africa, such as combat planes or heavy tanks, this is not the case for submarines. Thus, to date, only five navies of this continental bloc have a submarine fleet: South Africa, Algeria, Egypt, Israel and Iran.

However, in the years to come, this market could well prove to be as attractive as Europe or Asia, for the sale of these conventionally powered submarines. Thus, Egypt began negotiations with Paris a few months ago, with a view to acquiring 4 to 6 Scorpene submarines, which would be built locally. However, Cairo has apparently postponed this program while it rebuilds the necessary budgetary reserves, after several consecutive significant investments in recent years.

Morocco, too, is raising more and more frequently the possibility of acquiring a submarine fleet, to respond to the Algerian fleet fielding 2 Pr 877 Kilo submarines, and 4 Pr 636 Improved Kilo, original Soviet/Russian. In such a scenario, a fleet of 4 to 6 ships would be likely.

Finally, the Saudi Navy, which until now had exclusively equipped itself with surface ships, also seems close to crossing the Rubicon, to equip itself with a submarine fleet. Here again, a fleet of 4 to 6 ships seems to be necessary to simultaneously cover the country's two maritime facades.

The Canadian market: a need for 12 ocean-going submarines, tailored to Naval Group’s Barracuda family

If the future global market, for conventionally powered submarines, represents more than fifty ships to be produced and delivered by 2035 or 2040, the competition which, today, focuses all the eyes of industrialists naval, is the Canadian contract.

This aims, in fact, to replace the 4 Victoria class submarines, currently in service, with 12 new submarines with ocean capabilities and a proven capacity to operate under the polar ice, a contract estimated between €40 and €60 billion, which is not without recalling, in its form as in its attributes, the Australian contract of sad memory for Naval group.

Although given the stakes, all Western industrialists are making immense efforts to seduce Ottawa, it seems that Washington intends to take advantage of this to attach Canada to the second pillar of the Aukus alliance, which could involve support for the Japanese offer, Tokyo being the second candidate for the second pillar of the alliance, envisaged by Washington.

The fact remains that, as in Australia, this contract is above all marked by excess. First, because today, the Canadian Navy only has 4 submarines, and it will be necessary to make a significant effort to go from 4 to 12 ships, even though the Canadian Navy, like all Western navies, struggling to recruit and maintain staff. This is especially true since the Royal Canadian Navy will also have to arm the 15 Type 26 destroyers ordered to replace the twelve Halifax-class frigates.

Then, because of its price, representing alone almost two full years of the budget of the Canadian armies. And this, while, for example, the Canadian Army only has around sixty tanks, and no 155 mm self-propelled cannon, the Canadian artillery being limited, in this area, to around thirty towed M777 light guns.

In fact, as long as Ottawa has not moved forward on these aspects of budgetary security and manning of the Royal Canadian Navy, this super-program will remain under a sword of Damocles, with the risk of taking with it the industrialist who will have fully invested in it.

However, if the Shortfin Barracuda was, by far, the best submarine for Australian needs in 2015, there is little doubt that this same vessel, or the more compact Blacksword Barracuda, would fully meet Canadian expectations, so that we now know that Naval Group has a significant competitive advantage, particularly in terms of price, over it.

It remains to be seen to what extent the French group is ready to embark, once again, on a super Anglo-Saxon contract managed covertly by Washington, especially when the rest of the world market is reaching out for its new Scorpene Evolved?

Conclusion

As we can see, the market which opened this year, with Indonesian and Dutch orders, only constitutes a preview of what will present itself, between now and 2035, in the field of subsector exports. -conventionally powered sailors.

With the Scorpene Evolved, as well as the new Blacksword Barracuda, the French Naval Group now has the perfect offering to establish itself in this market of more than fifty units, or, at least, to take the lion's share.

Certainly, between the German TKMS and its dominant historical position, Hanwha Ocean and Navantia, both ready to do anything to position their vessels for export, Kockums and its innovative technological solutions, without forgetting the Russian and Chinese offers, particularly attractive on From a financial perspective, competition will undoubtedly be fierce, and will be even more fierce as certain manufacturers fail to emerge.

However, with such a dispersed market of nearly fifteen Marines, very diversified needs for which the Naval Group range constitutes a serious advantage compared to Spanish, Swedish, Japanese or South Korean single-product solutions, with the advantage of price, and driven by the positive dynamic initiated in recent months, the French manufacturer is in an excellent position, not only to match or exceed the export scores of the Daphnée and the Scorpene, with the Scorpene Evolved and the Barracuda, but also to regain TKMS its leading position on the global market.

This would only be, let us admit, fair, after the group was able to recover after the Australian humiliation, and set out again to attack other markets, with other more modern and more attractive products, even though With the construction of SSN and SSBN 3G for the French Navy, the French submarine industry had ample opportunity to secure its activity for the next 20 years. Not bad, especially for a public group. Not bad !

Article from August 6 in full version until September 22, 2024