For several months, the situation in Ukraine has become particularly chaotic. The advance of Russian troops in Donbass is opposed by the Ukrainian military initiative in the Kursk Oblast, while, depending on one's bias, some are convinced of the inevitable collapse of the Kyiv defensive system, or of the Russian economy.
In fact, it is impossible today to predict the evolution of this conflict, as the variables are numerous, and the threshold effects are very high. Thus, depending on the reality of the Kremlin's red lines, real and not perceived or communicated, but also depending on the perception of these same red lines, or depending on the results of the American presidential elections, in a little over a month, the trajectories could be radically different.
The best that can be done today is to focus on the present reality of the conflict. This is precisely what Ukrainian engineers, supported by American teams and an Australian engineering project manager, have done in developing the AQ400 attack drone.
Built of wood, this attack drone, with a range of 750 km, has recently been used to carry out large-scale attacks against industrial sites and weapons storage sites, destroying several and wearing down Russian air defenses.
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Ukraine faces constant pressure from Russian armies and Western ban on striking Russia
It is undeniable that the situation today is very deteriorated for Ukraine. Despite the military and financial aid coming from Europe and the United States, the country is only managing with great difficulty to renew its personnel and resources, given the severe losses recorded, particularly in the Donbass, and the exhaustion affecting the forces engaged.
While Ukrainian industries, as well as energy, communications and transport infrastructures, are regularly prey to Russian missile and drone attacks, the only alternative for Kyiv is based on symmetry of means to strike Russian industrial and logistical infrastructures, deployed in the depth of the military presence of its armies.
Unfortunately for the Ukrainian armies, they no longer have their own resources in this area, their few short-range ballistic missiles and cruise missiles having already all been used up, while the production of these systems is particularly long and expensive.
At the same time, Ukraine's Western allies refuse to allow long-range missiles sent to the Ukrainian armies, such as the Storm Shadow / Scalp-EG delivered by Great Britain and France, to be used to strike deep into Russia. Although strongly criticized in public, this decision is clearly based on information related to the crossing of certain very real red lines for the Kremlin, with the risk of an extension of the conflict in Europe.
However, today, the European armies are not ready, in their great majority, to support such a commitment, even in the face of weakened Russian armies which, for the occasion, could massively mobilize, but also receive very significant aid, coming from its North Korean, Iranian or Chinese allies.
As for the United States, they know perfectly well that an engagement in Europe would mean the rapid loss of Taiwan, and a risk of collapse of the defensive system in the entire Western Pacific, the US armies not being able to support two major engagements effectively, against China and against Russia.
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