After the Middle East, Asia and Europe, the Rafale could soon land on the South American continent. Several South American air forces must, in fact, modernize their fighter fleets more or less quickly, and the Rafale is often cited by the local press as one of the favourites, or even the favourite, for the competition.
Until now, it was colombia which seemed to represent the most important short-term potential for the French aircraft manufacturer. After falling out with Jerusalem, Bogota must, in fact, quickly replace the Kfir C10s currently forming its fighter fleet, while Israeli manufacturers have stopped providing support for Colombian aircraft.
In all likelihood, this case should therefore be resolved quickly, knowing that the Rafale had been initially chosen by the Colombian Air Force, in 2021, including in the face of the Typhoon, which is being opposed to him again today, for a contract covering 18 aircraft.
However, Colombia may not be the only, nor the first South American country, to implement the French fighter. In fact, the Peruvian air force and authorities have started the procedure to replace the Mig-29, Su-25 as well as the 11 Mirage 2000P, and the Rafale would be, according to confidences obtained by the specialized press, the big favorite in this case.
In this section:
Peruvian Air Force to Replace Fighter Fleet
The Peruvian Air Force currently operates a fighter fleet composed of Russian and French aircraft. In 1997, Lima acquired 21 MIG-29s and 18 Su-25 attacks, followed the following year by 3 additional MIG-29s to replace the Su-22s acquired in the 70s, following the military coup by pro-Soviet General Álvaro, and to support the 12 Mirage 2000Ps acquired in 1984 from France.
Of this fleet, only 8 Mig-29s modernized in 2008, 2 Su-25s and 11 Mirage 2000Ps remain today, as well as around twenty American A-37 Dragonfly light attack aircraft, dating from the 60s.
As early as 2013, Lima began to launch consultations to modernize this fleet, the country having several territorial disputes, particularly with Chile. Several models were evaluated, including the Russian Su-35s, the European Eurofighter and the Rafale French.
However, the reality of the costs quickly became apparent for a country whose GDP is capped at $250 billion, and the ambition to acquire 60 Russian fighters and 60 European aircraft, which had been mooted for a while, was quickly abandoned.
Since then, the Peruvian Air Force and the Ministry of Defense have continued their assessments, while at the same time the country's fighter fleet has been inexorably reduced, particularly regarding Russian aircraft.
The 2025 budget project of the Peruvian army includes funding for the purchase of 24 new fighter jets
After 10 years of quiet negotiations, the issue of modernizing the Peruvian fighter fleet has returned to the forefront in recent months. In order to respond to this situation, General Carlos Enrique Chavez Cateriano, Commander-in-Chief of the Peruvian Air Force, announced the launch of an international competition, a few months ago, with a view to modernizing this fleete.
Several aircraft were evaluated by Lima: the American F-16, the Swedish JAS 39 Gripen, and the Rafale In addition, discussions have reportedly been launched with South Korea regarding the KF-21 Boramae, with the stated ambition for Lima of local co-production.
The announcement made on this subject in July 2024 gave very little information. We now know more, as the Peruvian Minister of Defense, General Walter Astudillo Chavez, informed the National Defense Commission of Congress that the 2025 budget project for the armed forces included Financing of the program for the modernization of the Peruvian hunting fleet.
Thus, the objective of this program is to acquire "24 cutting-edge (modern) fighter planes" in order to "have a significant level of deterrence in the region," according to Minister Astudillo Chavez, before the same commission a few days ago.
Le Rafale French given favorites against F-16 and Gripen in Peru
According to information obtained by local correspondents of the specialist website infodefensa.com, the Rafale Dassault Aviation would be unanimously considered the favorite in this competition.
Indeed, according to the site, the American F-16 would suffer, in the eyes of the Peruvian military, from the constraints of use imposed by Washington, but also from a single-engine design and a large ventral air intake, making flying at very low altitude more dangerous, in particular due to the risk of avian attack.
The JAS 39 Gripen E/F, for its part, suffers from a high price, for a single-engine fighter, while, like the F-16, it is an evolution of the Gripen of the 80s, considered by Lima as equivalent to the Mirage 2000P of the Peruvian air force.
It is finally likely that the performance and reliability of the Mirage 2000P, deployed on the air base of La Joya, near the triple border with Chile and Bolivia, one of the most critical points of the Peruvian sky.
In fact, after 40 years of service, the Peruvian Mirage 2000s continue to carry out their missions with efficiency and availability, with an extraordinarily low allocation rate of only 8%, where two thirds of the Mig-29s, four fifths of the Su-25s acquired in 1997, have already been withdrawn from service.
There is no doubt that this reliability, in addition to the operational efficiency of the M2000 which remains, even today, one of the most capable interceptors, will have played in favor of the Rafale in this file.
Towards a staggered order, as in Indonesia, or the integration of Rafale second-hand, like in Greece?
However, the choice of Rafale will not be without significant problems for Lima and the Peruvian Air Force. In fact, the 2025 budget project provides for this issue an envelope of 7 million soles, or just under $580 billion.
Obviously, such a budget is very insufficient to acquire 24 Rafale new ones (but also 24 new F-16Vs or 24 new Gripen E/Fs, for that matter). Even taking into account a reduced stock of munitions, due to a lower risk, and more limited support, the creation of a fleet of 24 modern fighters requires a budget ranging from $3,5 to $4 billion.
This point will certainly not have escaped the Peruvian military, especially since they are in permanent contact with Dassault Aviation and the French aeronautical BITD (Safran, Thales, MBDA, etc.) for the implementation and maintenance of the M2000P.
Two hypotheses can therefore be considered at this level of information. The first is that the 2025 budget only covers part of the order as targeted by the Peruvian air force, and that a second part, of an identical amount, will intervene later, to complete the order and reach the format of 24 fighters.
This was the procedure that Jakarta used to break down the order of 42 Rafale for the Indonesian Air Force, in three lots to meet the annual funding of defense programs and its limits.
The second hypothesis, which cannot be ruled out, concerns a mixed order, mixing new and used aircraft, taken from the fleet of Rafale French Air Force.
This model was notably used for Greece, which had an urgent need for Rafale in the face of the Turkish threat in the Aegean Sea. France had then agreed to transfer 12 Rafale B/C (including six offered and six sold second-hand) taken from the inventory of the Air and Space Force, to the Hellenic Air Force, after having been modernized to the F3R standard by Dassault, while Athens also ordered six Rafale new ones, then six more new devices a few months later.
The KF-21 Boramae still has to mature before it will interest the Peruvian Air Force
In July 2024, when the news of the modernization of the Peruvian fighter fleet appeared, another aircraft also attracted the interest of the Peruvian Air Force General Staff.
Thus, the new KF-21 Boramae, the twin-engine mid-generation fighter developed by South Korea to replace its older F-5s and F-16s, had particularly caught Lima's attention.
Not only does the South Korean fighter appear promising in terms of performance and operational capabilities, and economical to purchase, with an acquisition price estimated at between $60 and $80 million, but Seoul is reportedly showing itself to be particularly flexible in terms of industrial compensation to support the export of its first combat aircraft.
This suggested, by the Peruvian Ministry of Defense, a possible industrial cooperation around the device, taking advantage of the distance taken by Jakarta with this program, precisely to turn towards the Rafale French.
If the Boramae hypothesis remains alive today, it would seem, according to information obtained by infodefensa.com, that it is being considered in the longer term by Lima, the device still having to prove its effectiveness, reliability and durability, before Peru commits to this issue.
It should be noted, in this regard, that the fleet of 24 fighters envisaged by the general staff for the 2025 budget is equivalent to the current Peruvian fighter fleet. It is therefore understandable that the KF-51 hypothesis is still very vague and distant for the Peruvian air force.
Towards a 6th international operator of the Mirage 2000 having turned to the Rafale ?
Lima arbitration in favor of the Rafale, constituted a new strategic move for Dassault Aviation, and this, in more than one way. First, it would allow the French aircraft manufacturer to regain a foothold with the Rafale in South America (unless Colombia decides before), after the resounding failure of Rafale in Brazil in 2011, for the benefit of the Swedish JAS 39 Gripen E/F.
South America is, in fact, a strategic expansion vessel for the French aircraft manufacturer in the years to come, while several of the air forces on this continent will have to modernize their fighter fleets in the years to come.
Above all, Peru would be the 6th country to turn to the Rafale, to replace its own Mirage 2000. The latter had been exported to 8 countries around the world (Brazil, UAE, Egypt, Greece, India, Qatar, Peru, Taiwan), representing an exceptional loyalty rate of 75% for the French aircraft manufacturer, especially since France now refuses to export major weapons to Taiwan, so as not to provoke Beijing.
Furthermore, the failure in Brazil was due to the disastrous management of the case by Nicolas Sarkozy, then President of the Republic, while Brasilia had already declared itself in favour of the French plane, but unofficially.
Considering that today, four of the users of the Rafale (Egypt, Greece, India and Qatar) have ordered (or will do so very soon, for India), additional batches of aircraft, we understand that Dassault Aviation fighters are, today, and by far, the best sales reps for the Rafale today, and for the FCAS, tomorrow, if applicable.
Conclusion
Once again, therefore, the information coming from Lima highlights a probable order for fighters. Rafale French for the Peruvian Air Force, notably to replace the Mirage 2000P fleet, in service since the mid-80s.
The file, as presented today, appears far from being closed, so significant is the gap between the budget of $2 billion, planned for this subject by the Ministry of Defense in 2025, and the stated objective of acquiring 24 aircraft.
However, alternatives exist, whether it be staggered orders, as was the case for Indonesia, or the possibility of integrating second-hand aircraft into the fleet to reduce their price, as was done for Greece.
In any case, an arbitration of Lima in favor of the Rafale, would constitute a new strategic success for Dassault Aviation and the entire Team Rafale, and will contribute to securing the order book and the activity of the entire French aeronautical BITD, even though in France, uncertainties remain concerning compliance with the 2024-2030 LPM, against a backdrop of debt crisis and strong domestic political tensions.
Article from September 12 in full version until October 15, 2024
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It is a pity that France is reluctant to sell to Taiwan. China's immediate reaction would be an argument for Dassault. Danger! The Rafale is a real plus for the armies in its possession. The F35 does not raise any reactions from China.
Pride obliges me to correct this unfortunate error, but it seems important to me as a Frenchman not to stoop to the position of a servile country like Guatemala or Honduras which recognize Jerusalem as the capital of Israel for the sole reason that Washington has done so...
The only capital of the Hebrew state that we recognize is Tel Aviv, our embassy is there and we will change our minds whenever we want, never when someone else decides for us, with all due respect to the United States.
What is the policy of the French State and Dassault for donations and second-hand resales?
First the oldest cells?
Priority is given to cells awaiting modernisation: this allows the cost of the standard modernisation to be borne by the customer. This is what happened for Greece and Croatia, the transformation to the F3R having been borne by the customer.
What is the 8% "allocation rate" of Peruvian Mirage 2000s?
Attrition rate maybe?
Number of lost devices / total number of devices => 1/12