In 2003, Poland announced the order of 48 F-16 C/D Block 52 from the American Lockheed Martin, for a total of $3,5 billion. At the time, it was the most modern version of the American fighter, as well as the largest arms contract ever signed by a country previously belonging to the former Soviet bloc or the Warsaw Pact.
Since then, the Polish appetite for American defense equipment has not abated, with the recent order of M1A2 tanks, HIMARs systems, or even AH-64 combat helicopters. This is again the case today, as Warsaw has just made official the modernization of its 48 F-16 Block 52, to the F-16V or Block 70/72 standard.
However, the amount of this order, $7,3 billion, is intriguing, as it is so high, and by extension, questions the merits of the orders placed by the Polish authorities since 2017 to modernize their armed forces.
In this section:
Poland's Unparalleled Defense Effort Since 2016
The Poland has embarked on a major effort to expand and modernize its armed forces. As a result, the country's defense spending has increased from $10 billion and 1,9% of its GDP in 2016 to $40 billion and almost 4,2% of its GDP in 2024.
For Warsaw, it is about responding to the rapid rise of the Russian threat on NATO's eastern front, and to dissuade Moscow from any adventurism on Polish territory, without having to depend excessively on the protection of its allies.
This renewed investment allowed the Polish armies to embark on a phase of modernisation and transformation, unparalleled in Europe over the last 60 years, notably increasing from 4 to 6 armoured and mechanised divisions and from 70 to almost 150 combat aircraft.
To this end, Warsaw has increased its arms orders, mainly from its American ally (M1A2 Abrams, HIMARS, F-35, Patriot, AH-64 Gardian) and its South Korean partner (K2 tanks, K9 artillery systems, LRM Chunmoo-2, FA-50 attack aircraft), but also to Great Britain (Arrowhead 140 frigates, CAMM systems), and Polish systems.
According to the announced planning, the armies will have, by 2035, 1250 combat tanks, that is to say half of the European fleet, but also 2/3 of the mobile artillery systems, and 3/4 of the multiple rocket launcher systems, of the Western European theater.
In 2024, Poland orders the modernization of its 48 F-16s to the F-16V for $7,3 billion
It is in this context that Warsaw has just validated the modernization of its fleet of F-16 Block 52, to bring it to the F-16V standard, the most advanced and most efficient, concerning the Lockheed Martin device.
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It seems to me that regarding the F16V, the Greeks backed down in the face of the estimate for updating the electrical warfare part, which was stratospheric.
As for the air force, it looks like Poland is trying to implement the high-middle-low structure which is not a bad idea.
1) F-35As for the high 2) F-16Vs fot the middle 3) 36 FA-50 block 20s (with Raytheon AESA and BVR capability) for the low … and 12 FA-50 block 10s for training (already delivered)
F-16Vs are not cheap for procurement or for operation. It is not wise to use it as a trainer (as the advanced course in the US and Japan. In Japan, actually it is F-2, the upgraded, modified, indigenous version of F-16. )
As for the F-16 upgrade:
It seems all of them are to be equipped with the new, very new IVEW electronic warfare suite(AN/ALQ-257). I might be wrong, but it seems that the 'EW featues' of Tornado or Rafale are limited to self-protection. As far as I know (I maybe wrong), the Western escort EW fighters (with electromagnetic attack capability) are F-35, F-35i, EA-18G and F-16V with AN/ALQ-257.
Maybe Poland ordered AGM-88G-ARGGM-ER missiles and other porwerful missiles, which they do not want to publicize.
Of course it's not a bad idea. This is not the point here. What is a bad idea, is to pay 135 m$, the price of a fully equipped brand new Gripen E as good, probably even better, as a F16V, to update a 20 years old aircraft, which will not fly more than 20 years after that, and which will no more evolved after that, because the F-16 cell is now, far too old.
For F-16V, it is highly exaggerated to consider the EW capability is to protect anybody else than itself. Same with the F-35, btw. This arguments works in press conference, but not in air battle. It is more or less the same as the updated Spectra of Rafale F4 and Spartan of Typhoon Block IV. You fill not protected support planes or non-protected aircraft with that. That's why USAF is looking for a dedicated EW aircraft, same as the Growler, a capacity they lost when the withdrawal the EF-111 Raven, and which obliged the US navy to dedicate part of its Growler fleet, to support its tactical aircraft (F -16C/D, F-15C/D/E..) when needed.
"This is all the more surprising since such an arbitration would have made it possible to avoid the questionable order for the 36 remaining FA-50s, worth $1,5 billion, a light single-engine aircraft, supposedly intended to replace the Su-25s for close air support missions, to use its F-16 Block 52s for this mission, much better suited to operating near a contested theater than the South Korean light aircraft."
It is not very clear. What was the role assigned to the Su-25 and the FA-50?
The FA-50s acquired from South Korea are supposed to replace the Su-25s in CAS (Close Air Support) missions. However, F-16 Block 52s would be incomparably more effective, and less exposed, for this type of mission.
There may be a form of "independence" in implementing equipment from different suppliers and different countries. What about German, US or other tanks if one of these countries entered into a policy of appeasement towards Russia? Furthermore, if things move in Asia, which contracts would be honored?
In 1940, when France faced an imminent threat of invasion, it placed orders with all countries (USA, UK) and had only purchase orders to fight with. South Korea's policy worked because it got there early. Poland has a bulimia for acquisitions because it knows it is behind. From the first cannon shot, it has the right to fear that it will no longer get a 155 shell. Their short-term behavior therefore seems logical to me, even if it will certainly lead to waste later. I think that these purchases do not reflect an industrial logic but they reflect an obvious short-term martial logic.