With 548 aircraft ordered, or assured of being ordered, to date, including 323 for export, the Rafale turns out to be a tremendous success for its designer, Dassault Aviation, and the entire Team Rafale.
This success is historic, because for the first time since the Mirage III, a new generation French fighter has exported better than the previous generation model, in this case the Mirage 2000, which sold 297 units on the international scene.
This success, which does not seem likely to subside in the years to come, now poses a new problem for the French industrialist. Indeed, global demand today is very high, and the Rafale is involved in more than ten global competitions and consultations, while at the same time the aircraft manufacturer still has to deliver no fewer than 260 aircraft to date.
This order book, envied by many European, Russian or Chinese aircraft manufacturers, is not without posing new challenges for Dassault Aviation, which must adapt its offer as well as its production, to this new reality. To respond, it is betting on a three-level commercial strategy, which is reflected in recent revelations, concerning French involvement in Dhaka, to sell 8 to 12 new Rafales to the Bangladesh Air Force.
In this section:
France pushes the Rafale to strengthen Bangladesh Air Force
Indeed, according to the Indian press, it seems that the recent visit of the French President, Emmanuel Macron, to Dhaka, the capital of Bangladesh, on the sidelines of the G-20 summit in New Delhi, was an opportunity for French diplomacy, and for Dassault Aviation, to actively support the Rafale, in the competition against the Eurofighter Typhoon, for the modernization of the country's air force.
The contract would cover the acquisition of 8 aircraft, accompanied by all the munitions, spare parts and systems, allowing them to be implemented in a fighter squadron, for an estimated amount of $2,5 billion, accompanied by an option for 4 additional aircraft.
The fighters would reinforce the country's fighter fleet, currently composed of 8 MIG-29s modernized in 2014 by Belarus, and around thirty J-7s, a Chinese fighter derived from the Mig-21, both of which are largely outdated, particularly for this particularly active theater, Bangladesh bordering the Bay of Bengal.
Although the GDP per capita is still very low, around $3000 per year, the country is experiencing very sustained growth, of the order of 7% per year, which should allow it to more than double its GDP, which is now $460 billion. by 2040, to exceed $1.000 billion.
This growth, which is partly built on the rise in the standard of living in China and India, will therefore offer Dhaka much greater resources for its armies in the future. France intends to position itself in this market in a privileged manner, including by supporting contracts which, due to their volume, did not seem to interest Dassault Aviation until now.
The order book for Dassault Aviation's flagship today, compared to industrial production capacities
This negotiation is taking place in a context that the aircraft manufacturer has not experienced since the end of the 60s and the beginning of the 70s, with the success of the Mirage III and the Mirage V. Indeed, the current order book for the Rafale, will require more than seven years to be cleared, if the production rates of the Mérignac site, and of the entire subcontracting chain of the Team Rafale, manage to reach the objective of three devices produced each month, set by Eric Trappier.
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Thank you for this new beautiful analysis.
Is it known whether the United Arab Emirates (UAE) has expressed a wish to build (or assemble) its own Rafales ?
Because with 80 ordered and the ongoing discussion for more than 20 new F5 standard aircraft, they have the characteristics of a credible candidate (but I don't know if their BITD has the capacity).
Furthermore, can Dassault really hope to sell Rafale to Saudi Arabia (SA) in this context, because from a distance UAE and SA appear to be Gulf rivals and doing business with one might mean giving up doing business with the other, unless one is American (or Chinese) of course.
If you could enlighten me (enlighten us) on these two subjects…
Nothing is going in the direction of local construction for the UAE. On the contrary, the increase in rates announced by E. Trappier, is precisely used to meet Emirati requirements in terms of deadlines. In addition, the UAE is seeking to convert its economy more into R&D, engineering and digital technology, than into the production industry. A bit normal for a country of only 10 million inhabitants, of which almost 85% are foreigners. It would be necessary to import the workforce at the same time as the factories. Not very efficient.
UAE and KAS are not in excessive competition. Tensions in the Gulf mainly concern the UAE and Qatar, which has not prevented Abu Dhabi from turning to the Rafale. Remember that the UAE was an ally of the Saudis in Yemen, and that both, and the Egyptians, supported General Haftar in Libya, against the government in Tripoli, supported by Turkey and Qatar.
Thanks Mr. Wolf for your response and this new, enlightening information.
Sincerely