As the Chinese Navy modernizes and expands at a rapid pace, the U.S. Navy is struggling to ramp up production of new hulls, particularly Arleigh Burke-class destroyers, Constellation frigates, and Virginia-class submarines.
While all eyes at the Pentagon are now fixed on 2027, the famous deadline set by Admiral Davidson, strictly industrial options now appear incapable of responding to the reversal of the naval balance of power around Taiwan, anticipated by the former head of Pacific Command.
Faced with a shortage of hulls, but also of VLS, to respond to the Chinese threat, the US Navy has just announced a decision as spectacular as it is surprising, by requesting the postponement by four years, on average, of the date of withdrawal from service of 12 of the first 20 destroyers of the Arleigh Burke Flight I class, which entered service from 1992 to 1997.
In doing so, the US Navy intends to restore balance on the unfavourable trajectory facing the Chinese Navy, which is admitting its destroyers and cruisers into service at a rate three times faster, and this until 2030, the most likely date if a Chinese military offensive against Taiwan were to take place.
In this section:
A reversal of the naval balance of power in the Pacific from 2027, in favor of China
In an article from July 2024, we had studied the evolution of the naval balance of power in the Pacific between the US Navy and the Chinese Navy. This showed that the Chinese fleet would reach operational numerical parity, facing the US Navy, in 2027, and in 2030, concerning the submarine fleet, in the Taiwanese theater. After which, the gap would only widen, to the disadvantage of the US Navy.
Indeed, by 2027, the Chinese Navy should receive around thirty new Type 055 cruisers, Type 052DL anti-aircraft destroyers, and Type 054A/B anti-aircraft frigates.
In doing so, it will increase from six surface naval groups deployable around Taiwan at any time, a conceptual unit consisting of one Type 055 cruiser (or two Type 052DL destroyers), two anti-aircraft destroyers and two Type 054A/B frigates, to 8,5 in 2027, to 10,5 groups in 2030, and to 16 in 2035.
The US Navy, for its part, will only admit into service, by 2028, two Arleigh Burke-class destroyers per year, while it will lose, over the same period, the last 12 Ticonderoga-class cruisers. Starting in 2029, however, it will receive at least one Constellation-class frigate each year, but it was also to begin losing 2 Burke destroyers per year, in this case, the first 20 Burke Flight I, which entered service from 1991 to 1998, and were to be withdrawn from service from 2028 to 2036.
In other words, despite its overall numerical advantage, today, the number of surface groups deployable around Taiwan by the US Navy was expected to remain stable, around 8, until 2030, before timidly increasing to reach 9 in 2034, and 10 in 2040, the law behind the PLA's capabilities.
The US Navy is extending the service life of 4 Arleigh Burke Flight I destroyers by four years, to reach the threshold of 12 ships available.
Of course, the US Navy has other assets against the Chinese Navy, particularly in terms of nuclear-powered attack submarines or aircraft carriers. However, in the event of a Chinese blockade of the island, or to increase the deterrent potential of the US Navy, in the face of a possible attempt at amphibious action against the island, the number of surface ships, and more specifically, large combat surface units, such as destroyers, proves to be decisive.
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