Rafale, Scorpene, Caesar…: at the G20, Macron will arrive with a historic offer for the Brazilian armies
On the occasion of his official visit to Brazil in March 2024, while a Rafale Frenchman dispatched for the occasion, President Macron had opened the door to strengthened industrial defense cooperation between Paris and Brasília, during a speech given following the launch of the Brazilian Navy's third Scorpene submarine, the Tonelero, built by ICN, a joint venture between the Brazilian state and Naval Group.
The French president then surprised the assembly by expressing his hope of seeing the Rafale will soon evolve under the Brazilian cockade, in a joint effort of industrial defense cooperation between the two countries, ranging from the construction of submarines to aeronautical co-production, including reinforced support by France, in the Brazilian nuclear attack submarine program, the Álvaro Alberto.
It seems, according to the Brazilian press, that the French president and his Brazilian counterpart are now ready to make this ambition a reality. Indeed, on the occasion of the next G20 summit, which will be held in Rio de Janeiro, the French head of state will arrive with a historic offer of industrial cooperation in this field.
In this section:
Emmanuel Macron to go to G20 summit with historic offer for Brazilian armies: 24 Rafale, 36 Caesar, 1 additional Scorpene and 50 H-145 helicopters
Concretely, the Brazilian press reports that the French president will meet President Lula, to convey to him an extensive offer of partnership, cooperation and sale of defense equipment, in four parts.
First, Paris will propose to Brasilia the local construction of 50 H-145 medium helicopters, based on the model of the HXBR program, which allowed the local construction of the H225M Caracal helicopter in Brazil, including a significant transfer of technologies and industrial skills.
The second part of this offer concerns the sale of 36 CAESAR guns to the Brazilian land forces. This is to replace the order that Brasilia was to place for 36 Israeli ATMOS 2000 systems, declared winners of a competition that pitted the French CAESAR, the Swedish Archer and the Israeli model in particular.
The strong tensions that have emerged between Brasilia and Jerusalem, around the Israeli military intervention against Hamas, then Hezbollah, have called into question the execution of this contract, as is also the case in Colombia, again concerning the Atmos 2000.
The third component concerns the construction of an additional Scorpene submarine for the Brazilian Navy. Like the four submarines already ordered, the new ship would be built by the ICN shipyards in Itaguaí, a Franco-Brazilian joint venture, under the ProSub program.
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The affair is still quite strange. We don't see a tenth of this deal. Normally, it's not the manufacturer who comes with a big offer, but the army who announces a need. Moreover, replacing the AMX with Rafales, it's not 1 for 1...
If France is making such an offer, it is indeed because it has been negotiated before. As explained in the article, all this is certainly linked to the potential assistance of France for the construction of the SN-B.
Again I am surprised. Why this public announcement, in advance of the submission of the offer… It is so unusual… Generally, communication is very hushed. Here, we have the impression of transforming ourselves into “Amin Paperger”, creating business from nothing, barking very loudly, ready to be rejected. It is… surprising. As long as it works…
It comes from the Brazilians, not from the French side. The same goes for the announcement of the Belgian SAMP/T NG. It comes from the Italians, not the French either. On the French side, we are very discreet about this type of thing. For a long time, I thought that was a mistake. In practice, I tell myself that, in the end, it is perhaps not so bad, even if I am convinced that French equipment suffers from a less good image than it should be, on the world stage.
Good evening, I think that our president must be a better salesman than a manager and that he will make a non-refusable proposal to his friend Lula. in exchange for our help in building their nuclear submarine and the
co-construction of the Argentinian submarines (which I don't see where we could assemble them because of the already armoured Cherbourg site) he will surely twist his arm for the rest. why not also offer him the new Nexter tank in co-production, while we're at it, it could be a win/win!
That's exactly it. The goal is to make ICN the platform for building scorpene for South America, in a market that can reach 20 units, and that could appeal to South American navies, who would prefer to have continental support. Let's be honest, that was Naval Group's plan from the beginning, in 2008, and Emmanuel Macron, here, is only recovering the fruits of an industrial context that he inherited.
I totally agree. President is not the best, but sales representative at the wheel of his 504 diesel, he has a certain future. Joking aside, he tries to please both sides in the Maghreb, Ben M'hidi against the Eastern Sahara, sales to both Serbia and Croatia. Argentina and Brazil! He has a certain talent. If he stays in this field, he will soon be sales director of the French bitd.
Without getting too political, on this playing field, I think he's doing great. And that doesn't hurt. Whatever the qualities of those who came before him, I think he's very good in this area, with customers, partners and the US, which is particularly difficult, as we've seen on many occasions.
All this equipment, technology transfer, provided to a country that comes out of the BRICS 2024 summit with Putin in the spotlight?
Could we avoid jumping like goats every time our president travels and "mentions" the sale of Rafale..Already for Bangladesh this has been denied by the local authorities, to my knowledge?
It is normal and it is their job, everywhere, and every day we hope, that our BITD makes proposals... which is very far from the order and the deposits... For the rest our President does a little PR, it is also his job... but let's stay clear-headed
The case of Rafale in Brazil is the least credible, not necessarily Scorpene because the Brazilians want to develop their industrial base too and position themselves as a manufacturer in the wheel of success (NG is a shareholder in this site)
In the case of Brazil, Lula is in great political danger and his opponents, inherited from Bolsonaro, have a strong chance of taking federal power. The evangelical current is very present and growing, and is massively pro-Israel. Isr sales in Brazil and Colombia are not anecdotes but the fruit of a proximity, for 20/25 years, with deep currents, in the armed forces among others. There is an evangelical religious Zionism, often linked to a local populism, as in the US. On the contrary, there is an influential minority of "Syrians", Lebanese Christians, often Maronites
The anti-Israel positions (which can be discussed if necessary) in these two countries are often "Left-wing Postures", "which do not eat bread", of G governments, in political and economic failure moreover. Lula like Gustavo Preto in Colombia are probably on ejection seats.
Who is it that “jumps like goats” in your words?
We are witnessing a "repetitive pattern", a "pattern" where for a year the entourage/communicators of our President and the Ministry of Defense announce before the visit to countries outside the EU "proposals" "mentions" of arms contracts (Rafale; Helos, Caesar, Scorpene etc.
Uzbek, Kyrgyz, Bangladesh, Morocco, and Brazil
No comments from the Indus and our Hosts (politeness?) Where are these contracts?
The press and blogs report these announcements (normal) and unleash swarms of comments without any real basis (the goats)
Are we facing "coms" intended to make our President "exist"... who needs a little bit of it now... a little lucidity... Let's hope that this is not counterproductive
On the contrary, the latest signed or serious contracts (Portugal, Baltic States, Belgium for the Caesar or the Netherlands for the soums) were not the subject of any official visit or announcement in advance of the phase.
As indicated above in Brazil the cases of Helos and SM seem more credible because Airbus (Helibras) and NG have local industrial activities
the real interest of French N reactors, SM, beyond non-proliferation, lies in their compactness and especially their economic balance sheet which comes from the use of LEU compatible with the upstream and downstream sectors of N.Civil. (Enrichment, dismantling, recycling) Without these sectors in place the economic interest disappears
Except that here, the leak does not come from the French side, but from the Brazilian side. In addition, it is not a question of discussions, this time, but of formatted offers. So, it is quite different. Afterwards, when we look at how it works in other countries, it is much worse. A simple mention is enough to cause a stir in the Russian, Italian, German, British or Spanish press.
On the contrary, France is much more discreet than other countries in the area of potential defense announcements. Being in contact with quite a few French industrialists myself, I can tell you that you really have to show your credentials (or torture them, it all depends) to get information. It's very discreet, centralized, and everything happens behind the scenes.
Look, who in France is talking about the negotiations with Peru? Nobody. And yet they are taking place. Who is talking about the discussions with Argentina on submarines? Nobody, and especially not Naval Group. The information comes from Argentina. As for the discussions with Belgium, it is the letter A that launched the information. They are in Brussels!
So, on the contrary, I find that the authorities, like the French BITD, are both very discreet on these subjects, and I find, moreover, that they are very far from exploiting it, neither in the media nor politically. Afterwards, everyone sees noon at their door.
Hello, we still have a strong argument in the sense that on the one hand, even if we jointly manufacture the Scorpenes in Brazil, the patents belong to us. On the other hand, in the construction of their SNA where they encounter major difficulties, we are not going to give them the solutions without compensation! Otherwise, they should see with the Israelis who are very good at copying technology (Mirage 3, Caesar, etc.).