The alliance of North Korean and Russian forces will radically transform the global military balance by 2025

As the growing presence of North Korean forces near the lines of engagement in Kursk Oblast appears to be confirmed, Western intelligence services have suggested that Pyongyang's support for Moscow's war effort in Ukraine could grow further in the coming weeks and months.

Indeed, according to information initially relayed by Bloomberg, these would not be rust 15.000, but 100.000 North Korean soldiers, who could be engaged alongside Russian forces in this conflict.

While it is obviously not a question of seeing a constituted army corps bearing the North Korean star engage against the Ukrainian forces, this effort will, if confirmed, allow for the organization of the permanent presence of 15.000 to 20.000 fighters from Pyongyang, along the line of engagement, with a significant effect on the balance of power and the conduct of the war in Ukraine.

While the North Korean intervention seems to have motivated the authorization given by Joe Biden to use long-range American munitions against targets located on Russian territory, leading to a new increase in tensions between Moscow and NATO, one aspect remains totally opaque in this alliance: what are the compensations offered by Moscow to Pyongyang for such massive support?

An effort for the North Korean forces, equivalent to $15 to $20 billion per year for the Russian armies

Indeed, the commitment of 100.000 soldiers in an external theater represents a considerable investment for Pyongyang, as well as a political risk, knowing that among the troops sent are the most trained units and the most loyal to the Kim regime.

But while North Korea has a GDP of only $40 billion, and one of the lowest GDPs per capita on the planet, its leaders know precisely the value of such a commitment to Russia.

Thus, today, the Russian armies are 1,5 million soldiers strong, with an annual budget of $140 billion, or $9 billion/100.000 men. However, this ratio is very global, and the troops employed in Ukraine, or 600.000 men for 100 to 150.000 soldiers engaged directly on the front line, are now consuming most of the increases in credits since 2022, while the budget barely exceeded $60 billion.

In other words, considering that the HR burden of this war alone consumes half of the increase in credits, i.e. 600.000 men for $40 billion, the costs for 100.000 men reach $15 billion per year.

In fact, and considering the massive shipment of munitions and equipment taken, the support provided by Pyongyang to Moscow in this conflict represents a Russian budgetary equivalent of $15 to $20 billion, a calculation that Kim Jong-un certainly did not forget to make.

Reducing official losses of Russian armies and exhaustion of voluntary recruitment

Above all, for Russia, the arrival of troops from its North Korean ally represents an immense added value, which comes at just the right time to allow the Russian armed forces to maintain strong pressure on the Ukrainian armies, while the possibilities of future peace negotiations are becoming increasingly evident.

In addition to the contribution of fresh troops, Pyongyang's initiative also allows Moscow to compensate for the growing difficulties for the Russian armies, to recruit volunteers in order to compensate for their heavy losses, without having to, moreover, assume the weight of the losses, which is increasingly sensitive in Russian society, even in part muzzled.

Finally, unlike private military forces, such as Wagner and others, and regional armed forces, such as Chechen troops, North Korean soldiers deployed in Russia do not pose any risk to the country's political power, being fully under the authority and control of the authorities in Pyongyang.

What did Kim Jong Un bargain for his unconditional and massive support for Vladimir Putin?

Therefore, taken together, these different aspects allow us to estimate at several tens of billions of dollars each year the value, for the Russian authorities, of the commitment of North Korean troops in Ukraine.

While it is now possible in the West to form a relatively well-founded idea of ​​the framework, the stakes and the effects of this massive North Korean military engagement in Russia, no information has leaked out regarding the compensation obtained by Kim Jong Un.

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