Russian-fired RS-26 IRBM at Ukrainian city of Dnipro

This November 21, 2024 will remain a significant date for Western deterrent forces. For the first time, an ICBM RS-26 Rubezh (border) missile, qualified as intercontinental in the international classification, was reportedly launched against a major European city, the city of Dnipro, in Ukraine.

Fortunately, the ballistic missiles sent by Russian forces against this city of almost a million inhabitants did not carry the 4 MIRVs, atmospheric reentry vehicles with independent trajectory armed with a nuclear charge of 150 kt each, but vehicles armed with conventional charges.

However, for the allied forces in charge of monitoring the possible launch of one or more Russian strategic missiles to strike NATO or the United States, the Ukrainian target, like the conventional nature of the military charge, could only be confirmed well after the launch (target) and after the impact (charge), unless they had been previously warned by Moscow...

Updates at end of article.

Russian RS-26 Rubezh missile fired from Caspian Sea at Ukrainian city of Dnipro

For several hours now, European news sites and channels have been multiplying articles and analyses concerning Alleged strikes on the city of Dnipro by Russian intercontinental ballistic missiles.

Indeed, according to the Ukrainian army, and based on a surveillance video, admittedly quite convincing, the city of Dnipro was struck by several ballistic re-entry vehicles, themselves dropped by an RS-26 Rubezh ICBM missile.

The missile was reportedly launched from the Astrakhan region on the Caspian Sea and therefore followed an overstretched trajectory to reach a target only 1000 km away.

So far, the information has not been confirmed by the Allied Strategic Forces and has not been confirmed by Moscow, although the Kremlin has refused to deny it. That said, the Ukrainian claim is consistent with the surveillance video released around this topic.

This shows, in fact, 5 to 6 strikes carried out in groups of 6, by synchronous mobiles obviously at high hypersonic speed. However, in the Russian arsenal, the RS-26 is the missile most suited to this type of result, knowing that neither the Russian armies, nor their allies, have intermediate-range ballistic missiles capable of carrying 4 to 6 MaRV (Maneuvering Reentry Vehicle), apart from the Rubezh, Yars and Topol ICBMs, and the Bulava and Sineva SLBMs.

However, it is possible that the attack was carried out by Topol missiles, in experimental version, equipped with MaRVs carrying no explosive charge. The very low level of explosions on the ground could support this hypothesis, representing only the release of kinetic energy. However, the large number of vehicles, and the arrival in waves, seem inconsistent here, since the number of Topol-E, held by the Russian rocket forces, is very limited.

According to more or less staged indiscretions from Maria Zakharova, the Kremlin spokeswoman, the target of this strike was the industrial site Yuzhmash, the Russian name given to the missile and space components plant PA Pivdenmash, whose function in the Soviet world was to produce long-range ballistic missiles.

The RS-26, an IRBM/ICBM designed to strike Europe

Designed in the late 2000s, the RS-26 is an evolution of the RS-24 Yars intercontinental ballistic missile. In concrete terms, the Rubezh has one stage less than the Yars, which reduces its range.

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Updated 21/11/24 at 16:20 p.m. : As some specialists have pointed out, the simultaneity of the attacks shown in the video does not support the hypothesis of a strike with several missiles. The hypothesis raised, then, would be that the Russian missile would have carried 6 MIRVs, themselves armed with six conventional terminal munitions.

This hypothesis would, in fact, correspond quite well to the video of the strikes. However, nothing indicated, until now, that Russia had such a system of conventional strikes MIRVED with cluster munitions. In this case, the hypothesis of the Topol E, rather than the RS-26, would take on a lot of credibility. We will therefore have to wait for more precise information, from the Ukrainian and allied authorities, to learn more on this subject. That said, whether it is one or six missiles, does not change the rest of the article.

Updated 21/11/24 at 20:20 p.m. : According to US authorities, the missile launched by Moscow against Dnipro would not be an ICBM, but a Hypersonic IRBM. In addition, the United States confirms having been warned by the Russian authorities of the missile launch (which we had directly mentioned in the article).

The missile model is not specified by Washington, which specifies that the firing of an ICBM would have been preceded by a notification with 24 hours' notice from Russia. Concretely, these assertions do not contradict the hypothesis of the RS-26, which is both hypersonic, and which, in many aspects, is much more an IRBM than an ICBM (the ICBM classification had only been given to it to allow its development while circumventing the restrictions of the INF treaty. Thus, no recorded firing of an RS-26 has ever exceeded 2000 km, which corresponds to the trajectories observed here.

Furthermore, while no MRBM or IRBM programs are known to be underway in Russia, it is highly unlikely that a missile the size of an MRBM, or a small IRBM, could carry six conventional cluster munition reentry vehicles, given that the existence of such a vehicle was unknown in the public arena until this morning.

Updated 22/11/2024 at 00:35 p.m. : The RS-26 hypothesis seems likely to be confirmed. As mentioned in the article, the missile would fall much more into the classification of IRBM than ICBM. In addition, the missile would have carried five MIRVs equipped with six submunitions.
The article has been amended to reflect the announcement of a single missile equipped with MIRV cluster munitions, not a multiple missile launch.