For several years, a growing number of voices have been calling for more drones, autonomous systems, robots and artificial intelligence in the military. Thus, recently, Elon Musk confidently stated that it was now absurd to make fighter pilots take risks, when all it would take was to send drones.
Beyond the many technological and operational limitations that seem to largely escape Donald Trump's closest advisor, the use of these fully automated systems and AI could well lead to even more deleterious and dangerous effects.
Thus, in 2020, the American think tank Rand Corporation conducted a study to evolve these effects, if China and the United States were to make massive use of these drones and AI, in a scenario of tensions in the Western Pacific. And the results were clear!
Indeed, the risks of seeing these tensions turn into open conflict between the American armies and the People's Liberation Army would be directly proportional to the relative share of these drones and AI in their respective inventories.
In this section:
Arkhipov and Petrov, the young Soviet officers who twice prevented a nuclear war from starting
Twice during the Cold War, the coolness and sagacity of young Russian officers saved the world from nuclear war. In October 1962, in the midst of the Cuban Missile Crisis, Vasily Arkhipov, then political officer aboard the submarine B-59, opposed the use of a torpedo armed with a nuclear warhead against the American fleet, despite the rules of engagement specified by Admiral Fokhin before departure.
As in a bad B-movie script, the B-59 had not received the counter-order sent by the Russian Admiralty, sent while trying to evade detection by a US Navy destroyer. Against the ship's commander's decision, the young political officer firmly opposed the firing of a nuclear torpedo against the US fleet, saving the world from a destructive nuclear escalation.
In September 1983, at the height of the Euromissile crisis, Stanislav Petrov, officer on duty at the Serpukhov-15 strategic radar station south of Moscow, kept his cool when four ballistic missiles appeared on his screens, heading toward Soviet Union. The young officer quickly analyzed the situation, and concluded that there was a system error based on the low number of missiles sent.
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Article originally published on January 30, 2020, updated in line with recent news
