According to Krauss-Maffei forecasts, the Leopard 2 will not come to dent the MGCS market

In recent months, many industrial and military echoes from across the Rhine, gave substance to a possible opposition between the noted recovery of the European combat tank market, linked to the conflict in Ukraine, and the timetable initially planned for the Franco-German MGCS program. The latter must replace, from 2035, the dear French Leclerc and Leopard 2 Germans.

The presentation, a few weeks ago, of the new version Leopard 2A8 of the Krauss-Maffei Wegmann tank, increased this pressure on the MGCS program. Furthermore, in less than eight weeks, the new German tank has managed to attract the Bundeswehr, Norway, the Czech Republic and Italy, while the Netherlands also seems to be heading towards an upcoming acquisition.

In fact, there was nothing surprising in the fact that German manufacturers saw with concern the probable overlap of the two offers, which could potentially harm the immediate sale of Leopard 2A8, that reducing the addressable market of the MGCS when it enters into service, as did the CEO of industrial RENK, Suzanne Weigand, last April, calling for a shift in the Franco-German program to 2040 or beyond.

If a few days ago the French and German ministers Sébastien Lecornu and Boris Pistorius, maintained the initial timetable at 2035 following a meeting in Berlin, everything indicated until then that, for German industrialists, this remained counterproductive, even if the main interested party, Krauss-Maffei Wegmann producing the Leopard 2 and partner of the French Nexter within the KNDS joint venture, remained surprisingly discreet on the subject.

The reason for this discretion may have been revealed by the Stuttgart-Zeitung website on July 15. The article in question announces that it has come into possession of internal KMW documents concerning the planned production of tanks Leopard 2 by 2032, obviously crucial information (although without the slightest doubt confidential), to assess the reality of the industrial overlap mentioned for several months now.

However, according to this document, the German manufacturer plans to deliver over the next 10 years, between today and the end of 2032, only 648 Leopard 2 to its future European customers, i.e. a volume much lower than what would be necessary to achieve to significantly erode the addressable market of the MGCS program when it is launched in 2035.

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