Is a manufactured Thucydides trap at work in the Middle East against the United States?

By pushing American forces to respond in the Middle East, is Tehran participating in a Thucydides trap manufactured with Moscow, Beijing and perhaps others, to provoke American withdrawal and the collapse of the Western bloc?

Since the Hamas attack on Israel on October 7, Iranian forces, such as the Revolutionary Guard Corps, or affiliated with Iranian power such as the Houthi rebels in Yemen, had carried out several strikes or attempted strikes against American deployments in Middle East.

Beginning on October 17, the 19 attacks recorded against the American forces there left around twenty injured, mainly following concussions linked to the shock waves from the detonation of rockets and missiles.

The inevitable American response against Iranian forces in the Middle East

Although having, until now, attempted to follow a relatively distant posture vis-à-vis the Israeli offensive against Hamas, these attacks finally wore out the patience of the Pentagon, like that of President Biden.

It was, in fact, on his orders that two American bombers attacked, on October 27 at 4 a.m., two sites used by the revolutionary guards in Syria, as well as their affiliated groups, and destroyed them.

This American response could mark the start of an increased commitment by the United States in the region, in particular against Iran which continues to blow hot and cold simultaneously.

However, it is more than likely that this was the objective sought by Tehran, by increasing the provocations against American bases, so that the American executive had little choice other than to retaliate.

Why is Tehran pushing the United States to become militarily involved in the conflict?

Indeed, recent reactions from traditional allies in the region of the United States, whether the Gulf Monarchies, Egypt or Turkey, demonstrate a more than palpable tension within public opinions. public, particularly reactive regarding Israeli responses on Gaza.

However, if the savagery of the Hamas attack of October 7 was obviously intended to provoke an exacerbated, therefore violent, response from Jerusalem against Gaza, and perhaps Lebanon, and thus provoke the conflagration of the region, the desire to involve the United States, on the other hand, seems to respond to a completely different agenda.

Thus, the involvement of American forces in this conflict would certainly not benefit Hamas itself, nor would it benefit the Palestinian cause. On the contrary, it could lead to a certain rupture between Washington and its regional allies, especially since relations with Riyadh, Abu Dhabi, Ankara and Cairo are far from warm.

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