During the night of March 24, a sequence of alerts and explosions from Kiev to Ivano-Frankivsk indicated an unprecedented level of strikes. Compared to the autumn of 2024, marked by several hundred drones and dozens of missiles, the hypothesis of around 1,000 Geran, Iskander, and other vectors launched against Ukraine in just 48 hours has become dominant.
Near-national alerts, drones reported as far west as possible, and Polish fighters taking off confirmed the geographical expansion of these strikes. With at least 3 dead and 16 injured, this shift raises questions about the evolution of Russian doctrine and the real sustainable ceiling supported by its industrial apparatus in this domain, both against Ukraine and Europe.
Russia relies on the drone-missile pair for strategic conventional strikes against Ukraine
Since 2023, the repetition of long-range strikes has imposed a sustained pace on Ukrainian defenses. Moscow disperses trajectories to wear down stocks and identify less-covered areas. The threatened surface area is expanding, detection and anticipation are becoming more complicated, and defenses must cover more azimuths with diminishing resources with each raid.
Ballistic missiles have returned to the core of operations within campaigns combining swarms of drones and conventional volleys. This coupling increases the risk of saturation of multi-layered defenses and burdens the needs for coordination and logistics. The interception strategy based on Patriot Advanced Capability-3 (PAC-3) and other Western systems is being tested by the escalating pace of complex attacks. It remains under pressure when the tempo accelerates and calls for a better balance between costly layers and more affordable effectors.
In the autumn of 2024, several hundred drones, supported by dozens of missiles, were launched in one night, an unprecedented threshold at that time. The quantity has become a central factor. This milestone now serves as a benchmark for judging any increase in density. A prolonged campaign of this type would quickly exhaust limited interceptor stocks, particularly as the industrial and budgetary constraints of the defenders make sustaining the effort over time difficult.
During the winter, Moscow often targeted civilian infrastructure to produce systemic effects. Energy, transportation, and communication networks have been strained by the repetition of raids. The Ukrainian defense mobilizes PAC-3 and Aster 30B1 within a multi-layered framework under constant pressure. The sustainability of this posture depends equally on the availability of interceptors and tactical adaptation, with logistical robustness weighing as heavily as the performance of sensors and missiles.
Over 1000 drones and missiles launched against Ukrainian cities in 48 hours
After this mass threshold, the night of March 24 marked an even higher density. In Kiev, explosions were reported around 12:30 AM during a drone attack. At around 2:45 AM, the Ukrainian Air Force reported the approach of ballistic missiles. Explosions followed in Poltava and Zaporojie around 3 AM, and then in the Ivano-Frankivsk region around 4:30 AM. Authorities urged the population to take shelter and defenses were activated.
Access the full analysis
This article is reserved for MetaDefense subscribers. A subscription gives you access to all analyses, in-depth reports, and expert briefings published on the site.
No commitment. From €1.99.
