[Analysis] The Chinese Navy will have 6 aircraft carriers by 2035, according to the Pentagon

The Pentagon recently revived a projection that China could have at least six aircraft carriers by 2035, bringing back to the forefront a seemingly simple but complex question. This estimate is based on direct observations of Chinese shipyards, production data, and an analysis of the technical trajectory undertaken with the Type 003. It resonates with a series of tangible indicators and public signals that support the idea of ​​a planned ramp-up in production, while leaving significant uncertainties regarding the maturation of the systems and the availability of the necessary support resources.

This issue is not simply a matter of hull design; it concerns the coherence between three interconnected layers. The first relates to industrial organization and the production rates achievable by Dalian and Jiangnan. The second concerns the maturity of key technologies such as electromagnetic catapults and the composition of the air wing. The third relates to the conditions of effective operation, which require escort, attack submarines, logistics, and training. It is the interplay of these layers, and not production alone, that will allow us to assess the true likelihood of a fleet of six Chinese aircraft carriers by 2035.

The Chinese Navy reaches a decisive milestone with the Fujian aircraft carrier

Examining recent progress puts the previously mentioned projection into perspective, as the first three aircraft carriers established a method and a rhythm. The commissioning of the third, the Fujian, marked a milestone for the Chinese naval air arm, with the adoption of electromagnetic catapults and an expanded flight deck architecture. Public milestones outlined a launch in 2022, sea trials in spring 2024, and then commissioning in 2025, highlighting a tight cycle between trials and acceptance. The commissioning of the Fujian aircraft carrier This crystallized an accelerated learning process and an ambition to shift towards an organized series logic.